BJP needs more “Chai pe charka” not “Gai per charcha”

So Bihar did manage to throw a huge surprise this past Sunday. The surprise wasn’t the victory of Nitish & Lalu’s “Mahagathbandhan “ but rather the huge margin of victory over BJP led NDA coalition. They achieved a staggering 2/3 majority with an astronomical 8 % difference in vote share.  More on the BJP drubbing later but my first words will be spent on the victors.

Nitish probably took the gamble of his life by breaking away from BJP when it installed Modi as its prime ministerial candidate around 2 years ago. He did manage to survive a wipeout in the national elections of 2014 when BJP rode to power on backs of Modi’s sheer persona & smart alliances with Ram Vilas Paswan’s LJP & Upendra Kushwaha’s RLSP. A three cornered fight (with Lalu & Congress) meant that NDA captured 32 of 41 Lok Sabha seats. Battling for political survival he did the unthinkable, joined hands with his arch enemy Lalu Prasad Yadav to remain in power. Joining hands with Congress the 3 parties assuming their votes transferred had a numerical strength greater than NDA. This ensured that the anti-BJP vote which had highly splintered during the Lok Sabha elections had coalesced around a single “Mahagathbandhan “ candidate ensuring a numerical superiority for them. A lot of Muslim majority seats during Lok Sabha elections had gone to BJP as the voters didn’t know which Muslim candidate was the best one to support. This issue also disappeared with this Grand Alliance being formed.  This massive vote for the alliance is thumps up from Bihar’s electorate to the development which has occurred under Nitish’s rule in past 10 years despite the BJP’s constant reminders to people that Bihar will return to “Jungle Raj” with Lalu in tow. This is in stark contrast to the so called “lost decade” of Bihar under Lalu & his wife Rabri Devi where the state basically stagnated. The only downside for Nitish in this verdict is that Lalu RJD now has won more seats than Nitish’s JD (U). Biggest priority for Nitish is to keep Lalu’s family at arm’s length from all affairs of state. Already there are rumors of Lalu preparing his son to be installed as heir apparent with a demand for deputy chief minister’s position. Lalu having gained majority of seats by delivering his Muslim-Yadav vote is going to surely demand his so called “pound of flesh”.  He has gone on record saying that he won’t interfere but there can be no guarantees with Lalu. His party members having returned to power after so long will want to have a say in day to day affairs of the government.   The bigger challenge for Nitish is not how to take Bihar forward but rather how to prevent RJD from messing up the huge mandate given to them. In today’s modern age India’s electorate has become not only aspirational & well informed but also restless as seen from several elections over last few years. There is absolute no benefit of doubt given & the new mantra is “perform or perish”. You can argue all you want about castes & alliances but with the young population (median age of 27) that is going to slowly become less important over time with increasing % of youth voters being eligible to vote in every new election cycle. The question on everyone’s mind is that how long this marriage of necessity between two polar opposites can continue before ego & ambitions get in the way & a divorce. The government’ success will depend more on the whims & demands on Lalu more than the man in power Nitish Kumar.

Now taking up the same point of “perform or perish” Modi has to realize that if he is not able to do any reforms & deliver growth he is will be on the chopping block in 2019 if people don’t feel that they are not better off than what they were in 2014. The smart alliances he & Amit Shah formed in 2014 were highly successful in multi-cornered fights in several states benefitting from the “first past the post” system. But they would to do well to remember that even with the massive 330+ majority in Lok Sabha as my earlier blog had pointed out that they only received 38% of the vote. This is essential means that if the remaining 60% can put aside their differences & get tighter they can in essence turn the tables & rout BJP. For e.g. if Mulayam (SP), Congress & Mayawati (BSP) join forces in UP they can ensure that BJP has no way to form the next government in 2017. Bigger question is that if arch enemies Mayawati & Mulayam can see eye to eye. But in politics as it happened with Lalu & Nitish you never say never. Many other states with elections upcoming the non-BJP parties are kicking the tires of teaming up like they did in Bihar which would be very bad news for BJP led NDA. BJP can’t the pin he loss completely on “wrongly counting the social arithmetic of Mahagathbandhan”. This can’t account for the 8% vote share gulf between both the alliances which was just 5% in Lok Sabha & that too was with counting Jita Ram Manjhi supporters in the Mahagathbandhan alliance versus NDA today.  Sure the BJP led NDA alliance did start with a 5% deficit/disadvantage but they themselves scored “ so many own goals”. One of the major ones was not projecting a well-recognized leader like Sushil Kumar Modi to counteract Nitish Kumar. Modi’s promise of progress & development didn’t strike a chord with the hearts & minds of Biharis who already have seen progress in their state under Nitish. So with Modi’s USP of development not seem to be working in the first couple of phases BJP turned to older policy of Hindutva to consolidate the Hindu vote to BJP’s side. Talk of beef ban, advertisements of a woman hugging a cow & firecrackers being burst in Pakistan if BJP lost probably ended up hurting BJP more with some fence sitters & minorities flocking to Mahagathbandhan thus ensuring that rout was on. Mohan Bhagwat’s comments about rethink on reservation would have spooked some of the OBC’s & EBC’s from supporting any of the Paswan & Manjhi’s candidates which would explain their drubbing in these polls. Nitsh also taking a page from Modi’s book turned the battle vs. Modi into a Bihar vs “Bahari” battle for Bihar’s pride. Anymore remembers Modi’s “ Gujarati asmita” jibe at “Bahari” Sonia Gandhi when she came to rallies in Gujarat during assembly elections?

This massacre in Bihar has put a kobosh on any hopes that Modi had of capturing majority in the Rajya Sabha. The next few assembly elections in Bengal, Assam, Tamil Nadu, Punjab & UP cant’ swing the arithmetic in favor of BJP a lot as BJP has very little presence in many of those states. Even if it can score victories in some of them the makeup of Rajya Sabha won’t change till the very end of his term. I am not sure if he wanted the campaign to go negative to this extent in the first place but now is the time for course correction. He doesn’t see eye to eye with opposition over several bills & issues. To move forward he will require their assistance on passing anything in Rajya Sabha. There could be common ground formed on bills such as GST Bill (Goods & Services Bill) with Congress who introduced it when they were in power. He will have to forget about more controversial reforms like Land Acquisition Bill which looks absolutely dead in the water.  Until now he has used the massive 2014 mandate for him as a sort of “my way or highway” blank check to push through his vision of reform agenda. He needs to now compromise & get consensus to move forward. After all governance is also about getting along with opposition to find a way to pass legislation. He still has 3.5 years left on his clock before next election & if things don’t improve the electorate will throw him out of power as easily as they elected him. Ministers like Mahesh Sharma, VK Singh, Giriraj Kishore and others have embarrassed the government with their remarks on the Dadri killing, the killing of Dalits in Haryana and the beef controversy - which has deflected attention away from all the positives that the government has done until now. All the oxygen in the media is being consumed by these daily controversies generated by just a few individuals who are giving free talking points to the opposition to relentlessly attack the government.  Modi has uptil now refrained from calling out these individuals publicly but he needs to send a strong message by dropping these MP’s from the cabinet. This will send out an unambiguous message to all party members especially all the hotheads that no rabble rousing or diversion of the growth agenda with irresponsible statements will be tolerated any longer.

Modi shepherded the NDA coalition to huge majority in the 2014 general election on his promise of growth & development & making the life of common man better who suffered under massive price rise, corruption & lack of opportunities under UPA-II. He was able to tap into the aspirations of millions of youth & swing voters with his image of being a reformer & skilled administrator which lead to prosperity in Gujarat. Even several minority voters who had never voted for BJP gave him a chance to help improve their lives. However the fringe element in the BJP has completely taken over airwaves with their illogical & insensitive statements. This is alienating the same voters who propelled Modi’s to victory in 2014. This along with the closing of ranks among opposition parties as seen in Bihar will wipe out all of the gains from 2014. Modi has to take charge & regain control of the message that has gone completely sideways since May 2014 or he risks being a one-time PM. After all what drove the masses to vote for BJP was development & not beef. On a lighter note the joke doing the rounds on social media after Bihar results were that people not cows vote. What Modi & BJP desperately needs more is “Chai pe charka” & not “Gai per charcha”.