On 17th
April 1999 after orchestrating the fall of the Vajpayee led NDA government, Subramanian
Swamy, a man who is never short for words proudly proclaimed to the media that
the credit for the fall of Vajpayee’s government has to go to three ladies :
Sonia Gandhi, J Jaylalitha & Mayawati, describing them as “teen deviyan” : Lakshmi, Saraswati and
Durga respectively.
Fast forward to the present day & the upcoming 2014
national elections, I believe the key to next formation of government is in the
hands of a slightly altered set of “teen deviyan” which I will explain further
in this article.
Today by all accounts due to the very high level of
dissatisfaction with the current UPA government due to multiple issues like
price rise, corruption, stagnation of economic growth & not to forget two
term incumbency, the current UPA government & particularly the Congress
party is heading for a severe & probably historic drubbing at the polls in
May. So all eyes not only inside but also outside India are looking towards the
BJP led NDA coalition to possibly form the next government. BJP under the
leadership of their prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi looks to be in a
good shape heading towards the election, but the overall NDA alliance is the
worrying point for them. NDA today is a shell of its former self in the
Vajpayee days when it had multiple coalition partners. NDA today is basically a BJP + 2: Shiromani
Akali Dal (SAD) & Shiv Sena (SS) & lacks any other substantial allies.Recent addition of Ram Vilas Paswan's LJP might help them with few more seats in Bihar but that is not the kind of sizeable addtition that NDA is looking for currently. The general opinion among the various pollsters is that NDA will win around 200
– 225 seats leaving it short by around 50 to 75 seats from majority. But NDA in
its current form will struggle mightily to get anywhere near the half way mark
of 272.
The biggest challenge for Modi & BJP will be to find politicians
willing to support them either before or after the election. Not many leaders
want to be associated with Modi in any way, shape or form let alone seen
supporting his government at the national level. With Nitish Kumar making
enough noise about Modi’s secular credentials, a rapprochement between his
JD(U) & BJP seems nonexistent right now. One
can safely rule out Mulayam Singh’s Samajwadi Party (SP) given his track record
of heavy minority appeasement. Lalu Yadav’s Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) has
always been a fierce critic of Modi & is also in the same category as
Mulayam. Safely excluding the Left parties from teaming up with BJP, this
leaves Modi with very few possible coalition partners. Biju Patnaik BJD is neither committing openly to joining the Third Front nor joining NDA. That leaves very few options for NDA to cobble the necessary support to cross the halfway mark..
This brings me back to
the discussion about our “teen deviyan”. Almost 15 years have passed since
Swamy’s comment which is like a century in today’s ever changing coalition
politics of India. So it is but natural that some of the “deviyans” in our
story has to change.
J Jaylalitha for most of last year appeared like a good coalition partner for BJP as Modi & her seemed to have a good rapport but recently the distance between the two parties has widened. Now she does not want to not openly commit to supporting BJP just in case BJP falters badly before the general elections.
This leaves her with leverage to become PM in case she is one the biggest
partner in a hypothetical Third Front government.
Second is Mayawati who in past has partnered with BJP on more
than one occasion to form coalition governments in Uttar Pradesh. Unlike
Mulayam she might be open to joining NDA coalition or supporting the government
from the outside. Being in power at Central level will help her neutralize &
keep in check Mulayam & Akhilesh SP’s government in UP.
Third & the new entrant to the list is Mamta Banerjee.
She was a part of the earlier NDA government where Mamta was the railway
minister. She has been prone to change sides very easily & has been part of
both NDA & UPA governments. At present time like many other regional satarps she has been very vocal about Modi. But given her track record it won’t be far-fetched for her to use her big contingent of MP's to support BJP while extracting her pound of flesh from BJP in return to get important ministries & a good economic package for West Bengal.
The Third Front coalition seems to be collapsing a little bit with both AIADMK & BJD both refusing to support it openly. This might gravitate both Jaylalitha & Biju Patnaik back to NDA fold. Also opinion polls predict around 20 seats for the parties of
the above “deviyan”. It might take two or possibly just even one of them (plus possibly Biju Patnaik's BJD) to
help NDA to go past or very close to the magic number of 272. With Mamta being a long shot for now to support Modi if NDA does well; it might come down
to Modi being able to woo the other two: Mayawati or Mamta.
After all these years Swamy’s comments from 1999 still hold
resonance in a very different way in 2014. In a bizarre twist of irony Swamy
who is no stranger to changing sides every few years joined the BJP formally a few
months ago. Swamy who brought down the BJP government 15 years ago with this
“teen deviyan” formula might just have the right formula for Modi to ascend to
the PM’s chair in 2014.
