It is often said
that when the results of elections are declared only one side is happy: the
winner & only one side is dejected: the loser. This would one of the exceptions to that rule
where both sides BJP & Congress have reasons to be both happy & sad.
BJP did overcome quite a few obstacles in its path but cannot be happy that
inspite of high voltage campaign led by PM Narendra Modi its seats went down to
double figures that too in his home state. Congress while happy that this has
been its best performance since 1985 has to be disappointed that inspite of
strong headwinds against BJP including 22 years of anti-incumbency, social
unrest among certain caste groups & economic woes in rural areas it
couldn’t dislodge the BJP from power. This election should be best viewed as a “political
draw”.
2017 GUJARAT RESULT
BJP captured 99 seats (a sharp decline from the 115 seats in 2012) slightly below my prediction of “low triple digits” in blog from couple of weeks ago. Congress increased its tally from 61 to 77 (+3 from allies). The 77 number is impressive considering the fact that earlier this year during the rebellion before Rajya Sabha elections it lost few MLA’s & its effective strength was only 44 in the outgoing assembly. In one of the most interesting paradoxes of this election BJP lost 16 seats but its vote share increased from 47.9 to 49.1% (+1.2%).
This most likely caused excitement after the final round of voting among some BJP/RSS insiders who perceived this to be a sign of a BJP landslide. This even put in confusion now doubting my original prediction of just over 100. The results are good learning lesson for me to see that one can’t make predictions based on just one party’s vote share without knowing your opponents as well. Congress+ (i.e. Congress + ally Gujarat Tribal Party) increased its vote share from 38.9 to 42.1% (+3.2%). The others i.e. 3rd parties & Independents vote was almost cut in half from 13.2 to 7% (-6.2%). Other Parties like Keshubhai’ s now defunct GPP or Sharad Pawar’s NCP or Nitish Kumar JD(U) which earlier split anti-BJP votes collapsed allowing all anti BJP votes to coalesce around the Congress alliance. This massively helped Congress pip the BJP in a lot of extremely close contests especially in rural areas.
Region wise
BJP was able to mostly hold the status quo against Congress in both North
Gujarat (-1 vs 2012): ground zero for Hardik, Alpesh & Jignesh’s movements)
& South Gujarat ( -3 vs 2012) : center of GST protests by traders &
Patidar protests. Central Gujarat the BJP stronghold the performance was same
as last time. However in Saurasthra, BJP suffered a huge loss of 12 seats which
caused its overall number to fall below the physiological “feel good” mark of 100.
Urban centers like Rajkot did well but the rural areas of Saurashtra were
unkind to BJP where it saw massive anger due to rural distress translate into
votes for Congress. Congress vote share increased by 8% in Saurashtra (interestingly
equal to the GPP vote share by Keshubhai in 2012). This shift in votes from a 3rd
party to Congress caused several BJP seats to switch to Congress this time
around (vs being split 2 ways against BJP in 2012).
BJP supporters
tried to take heart from the 7% delta in vote share vs Cong. & the overall
49% vote share. But that is a bit skewed due to massive win margins (median:
44,000) in all the cities in Gujarat translating to winning 75% of all urban
(& semi urban seats). However in rural areas there super close contests
where both BJP’s & Congress wins are by slender margins (BJP median: 16K vs
Congress 13K). Thus in rural areas Congress was able to win around 58% of seats
(exactly same % as won in the local body elections in 2015 after Patidar
agitation started). However this number was not large enough to offset the
losses in urban areas & BJP sneaked home with a tiny 7 seat majority in the
new assembly.
Some have
reported that NCP & BSP got more votes that margin of victory for BJP over
Congress in around dozen constituencies. As I predicted the 3rd parties
to be the X factor in the election which was one of the factors that led me to
predict that BJP had better chance of winning
vs Cong vs vice versa. But it is not right to blame them as some have done for
it to be the factor for Congress loss. When an election is this close you can
blame every tiny thing that goes against you as the being “the factor” for your
loss. (Remember all the reason being put out there for Hillary close loss in
2016 US presidential election). Similar arguments have been made for NOTA (None
of the above) votes > margin of victory in 30 seats (BJP 15 Cong 13 Others
2). BJP supporters have claimed that if the NOTA votes transferred to them they
would have same number as before but this a bit of stretch as there is no way
to independently verify if all these voters were going vote for BJP indeed in
absence of NOTA option.
Looking at
the factors that influenced the election there doesn’t seem to a massive
defection of Patels from BJP to Congress with both getting roughly same % of Patel
votes (vs roughly ¾ to ¼ in 2012 in favor of BJP). Across the entire state in
seats with substantial Patel population BJP won more seats than Congress. If it
was a rebellion against BJP across the whole state there should have been big
losses in seats in all regions but it was primarily restricted to Saurashtra. Losses in Saurashtra for BJP have been
primarily in rural areas. These areas which are heavily dependent on groundnut
& cotton farming have considerable no. of Patels. Hardik Patel did manage
to pick up disenchantment in rural areas to his advantage but please note that a
greater correlation for Cong. doing better exists with rural seats vs Patel
seats. This is the reason why many have said (a view I share) that the bigger
issue was rural distress vs Patidar agitation. As Nistula Hebbar (The Hindu) in
her column has said that what knocked down the BJP numbers was not PAAS
(Patidar Anamat Andolan) but KAPAAS (cotton).
Overall the
mood & results during this election where BJP won a small majority I think was
best encapsulated by the following two catchphrases among people:
1. “Naraaz hain par gaddar nahin” (We
are unhappy but not traitors) &
2. We want BJP to come back but with
lower majority so that it is less arrogant than before
THE ROAD AHEAD FOR CONGRESS
Inspite of
the loss the Gujarat results would have surely brought much needed cheer to the
supporters of Congress & especially those of Rahul Gandhi. Rahul has
presided over a very long list of Congress defeats/debacles & whose best electoral
achievement to date had been winning 21/80 in Uttar Pradesh in 2009 Lok Sabha
elections. He would have liked the win in Gujarat to be his signature moment
announcing his arrival on the national stage & his elevation to Congress party
president. This time around to his credit he has remained focused during the
entire election campaign while staying on message. This should help build up
his credibility as a serious politician in the eyes of the opposition who is
looking for a central figure to take on Narendra Modi & BJP juggernaut. No
other party except the Congress has either the pan India presence or the
organization that Congress has to challenge the BJP hegemony that exists right
now. Prashant Jha (Hindustan Times) in his excellent book “How the BJP wins” has
mentioned about the “index of opposition unity” as a major factor in how the
BJP fares vs opposition in elections. When opposition parties’ fight united
like the Mahagathbandhan in Bihar in 2015 the BJP can’t do well. In Gujarat due
to the absence of strong leaders Rahul Gandhi co-opted the help of caste
leaders Hardik, Jignesh & Alpesh to improve the Congress vote share &
chances of winning. Similarly he needs to bring together various likeminded
opposition parties such as NCP, SP, BSP, Left (CPI & CPM), DMK, TMC, etc.
under a common umbrella. Recently ex-BJP man Arun Shourie who was a minister
under Vajpayee but now is a Modi detractor said that opposition needs to field
just 1 common candidate in every seat in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections to defeat
the BJP. There was a rumor recently that SP BSP & Congress had agreed a
formula where 80 seats of UP will be divided as follows for 2019 (SP 30, BSP 30
& Cong 20). Not sure on how much credibility to put in this rumor as
question remains if Mayawati can put aside the events of June 2, 1995 (which
could be the subject of an entirely new blog by itself J) to join hands with the SP. A
further question is that when these parties & Congress sit down to hash out
seat sharing agreements can all the leaders leave their ego at the door? Can
Rahul facilitate seat sharing with a large set of parties when everyone will want
their own “fair share”? History is littered with many examples where
negotiations broke down resulting in parties fighting separately with
disastrous consequences. Rahul showing some tactical sharpness played the “soft
Hindutva” card in Gujarat with his temple visits to shed the pro-minority image
of his party. But how will they play out in UP & Bihar when he links up
with SP & RJD who have a huge Muslim base.
A favorite
word of Congress party in the recent past after suffering yet another defeat
was that it needs to do some “introspection”. This time around there has been
some jubilation even in a defeat at making BJP work very hard for a narrow
victory. Some in the media have declared
this as a “victory” for the Congress inspite of coming second. All this fanfare
about a “moral victory” is a bit overblown as there still needs to be more
introspection on its part. How did it not win when the BJP was facing a perfect
storm of 22 years of anti-incumbency, a section of BJP’s alliance was in
revolt, rural distress & unhappiness among its core base traders. Granted Congress
party which was “left for dead” after the rebellion in July did manage a good
revival & in that case it is a vast improvement but it still didn’t result
in what truly matters in politics: victory. I.e. Patient who was bedridden &
left for dead did indeed get up & started walking briskly but has some work
to do before he catches up to his running competitor.
Lessons are
many from this defeat. One it needs to develop strong regional leaders in all
states. This election has shown that it can take support from outside groups
like the three young leaders in Gujarat but “piggybacking” on them won’t win
you elections. You need to develop your own local organization on the ground
including promoting strong local leaders. Simply having people angry doesn’t
win you elections; you still need a good ground game to take them to the booth.
Rahul now that he has been elevated needs identify & promote strong
regional leaders (like Capt. Amarinder Singh in Punjab). In upcoming assembly
elections in Rajasthan & MP there needs to be elevation of one single
leader to take charge of party 12 months in advance of next election. Putting
off naming someone till last moment leaves you vulnerable to be internally
sabotaged at last moment by rival faction just before the election. Naming some
in advance gives you log time to pacify a disgruntled leader. Congress needs to
control factional wars in both Rajasthan (Ashok Gehlot vs Sachin Pilot) &
MP (Jyotiraditya Scindia vs Kamal Nath vs Digvijay Singh) to retain a possible chance
of wresting these states back from BJP control.
Second as
many surveys have pointed out that the increase in vote share of Congress in
Gujarat was partly due to anti BJP sentiment & was a “protest vote” i.e.
not really a pro Congress vote. This vote share increase could be a sporadic
surge which could very well return to the BJP in next election.People in
surveys & in talks with journalists said that they will vote for Congress
this time around as they are disgusted with the local BJP leadership & want
to teach them a lesson. But in 2019 will vote for Narendra Modi which means
that the increase in support the Congress must not take for granted but continuously
work to flip for disgruntled voters till 2019.
Thirdly hard
questions need to be asked as to why they still suffer from a trust deficit
with the voters. Rahul needs to draw up
an alternate vision of the Congress party for the country & how it differs
from BJP. Serious thought needs to put in to what will click with the masses to
win them over. By now many opposition politicians can attest to (like Arvind
Kejriwal) that simply opposing Modi for what he does doesn’t weaken him but
only makes him stronger. For e.g. when tough questions were being asked
initially of BJP’s governance in Gujarat, BJP was on back foot. Once Mani
Shankar Aiyar’s personal comment on Modi was made the whole game changed &
focus shifted from issues on ground in Gujarat to Modi himself.
Fourthly
even though Congress attacked BJP well over the last 3 -6 months it has to be a
5 year effort. It can’t simply afford to go dormant over 4.5 years of the term &
simply wake up in last 6 months & expect to win elections.
THE ROAD AHEAD FOR BJP
BJP did
manage to scrape through this time against extremely heavy headwinds. Their
leaders in public were saying that they were never too worried about the result
but many of them would certainly had a full blown panic attack on the 18th
between 9:08 to 9:20am when the Congress was actually leading in more seats
than BJP. This time around they were give a real run for their money by the
Congress this time around which is not necessarily a bad thing as it helps
remove any complacency & over confidence. Many in the media have mentioned
this to be a “defeat” inspite of winning the election. There is some merit to
the argument that it doesn’t look well when in the home state of the PM the
ruling party barely scrapes through. But on the other hand many who have been
calling this as the “beginning of the end” of the BJP hegemony in India are
reading too much into a single result. BJP supporters have defended against any
such observations spouting facts like they did manage to win becoming only the
2nd party to win a state 6 times in a row (only behind CPM’s 7
victories in a row in West Bengal). I personally believe is not a case of “flashing red lights” for the
BJP government like many in the BJP opposition would like you to believe but
there are sure signs of caution “flashing yellow lights”.
As I
mentioned earlier rural distress big issue which can no longer swept under rug.
While talking about the Gujarat elections with others I consistently talked about
the big concern that BJP could possibly actually lose if it completely collapses
in the rural areas. Almost everyone scoffed at that idea that BJP could
possibly lose in Gujarat & must have surely thought I have completely lost
it. I am not sure how many appreciate the fact that it came perilously close to
losing i.e. losing 7 more seats in rural areas & it would have been toast. Luckily
for BJP the damage was limited to just one region Saurashtra.
Farmers in
rural areas as always are at the mercy of rain, commodity market prices, middle
men, inclement weather patterns, etc. On top of that due to the lower MSP
(minimum support price) for their crops they don’t make enough for their crops to
cover the costs of production. This causes them to sink into debt &
despair. This has been a problem not only in Gujarat but has been seen across
the country. There have few farmer protests but uptill now haven’t been in the
news much which I am sure is going to change going forward. Modi who had promised to double the farmer’s
income by 2022 has come under severe criticism by the farmers who are not happy
with their current situation. They believe that they been brazenly lied to by
the PM. Gujarat is one of the biggest industrialized/urban state & BJP
might have caught a lucky break. As the election cycle moves to other more
rural states this has the potential to be a huge headache for the BJP. The
concern is that if this discontent spreads to other states the fortunes of BJP
in 2019 could quickly take a sharp downward turn. One must not forget that
after the resounding win for Cong in 2009, in the last 3 years of things so out
of hand that there was no way they could regain any sort of control on the
narrative. Arun Jaitely the Finance
Minister to his credit after the Gujarat verdict has said that they need to
analyze the reason for their underperformance. It is given now the budget in
Feb 2018 will be a populist rural friendly budget where a strong focus will be
given on the rural sector. MSP’s will also be expected to be increased though
this part where it becomes tricky due to inflation concerns. There is a theory
out there that one of reasons government is keeping MSP low is to keep
inflation under control.
Shivam Vij
in his article 2 months ago describes this (inflation control) as the single
minded aim of the present govt. (even at cost of high growth) which is
exacerbating rural distress. Most people think that UPA-2 lost the narrative
due to the corruption but actual survey data shows it to be high inflation.
Demonetization he says might have an unintended side effect of suppressing inflation
due to liquidity being sucked out of the system.
Many in the
rural sector think that Modi as pandering to his natural BJP support base of
urban voters by keeping inflation low at expense of rural voters. Now if as many
expect there will increase in MSP plus other benefits given to the rural
farmers how will the staunch BJP urban voters react when inflation rises? This delicate balancing act will be the
true “agnipariskha” (trial by fire) of the govt. over the last 15 months of its
term. Can it keep placate the rural electorate (with higher MSP, sops,
benefits, etc.) while not allowing the urban electorate to get upset (with
higher inflation)? If Modi succeeds in this that nothing short of miracle will
prevent the BJP from winning a 2nd term.
Another
issue brought to the fore has been youth disenchantment especially in the rural
areas. As I said in previous blog that even the biggest Modi detractors don’t
deny that there has been VIKAS (Development) in Gujarat in past 15 years.
However I want to reemphasize for umpteenth time that old motto of BSP: BIJLI
SADAK & PAANI (electricity, roads & water) no longer clicks with the
youth especially. The youth is aspirational & wants to better their life
& is looking for upward mobility. Modi rode this aspirational wave to a landslide
in 2014 general election. BSP has been replaced with 3 new keywords NKG :
Naukri, Kamai & Ghar (job, income & house). Seeing farming as a dead
end job many communities like rural Patidar want reservation due to lack of
private jobs. They want the “safety net” of guaranteed government job and/or
reservation in colleges. I agree that with several economists say govt. should
not be in job creation for it best left to private sector which is more
efficient & dynamic. Though it can create facilitate the right environment
to boost job growth which uplifts all sections of the society. Failure on this
point could cause more Hardik Patel type of youth unrest movement organically
sprouting up in other states adding to the cup of existing woes for the BJP government.
Two of the
big schemes of government have been building roads: Bharamtmala Yojna & building
houses PM Awas Yojna. I strongly believe that government should consider using
MGNREGA (Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee) scheme to employ
unemployed low skilled people to build both roads & houses under the above mentioned
schemes. This would not only increase rural employment but also reduce dependence
on agriculture & rural distress.
To counter
the caste politics of regional parties & Congress, BJP works on consolidating
the Hindu vote by whatever means possible including creating anxiety/fear in minds
of Hindus vs minorities (Muslims) and/or dominant political caste (Yadavs in UP/Bihar).
But the rainbow Hindu coalition of BJP that Amit Shah has created was shown to
be under stress in Gujarat with the Patels moving away. This will be a constant
tussle going forward between regional parties who will try splitting on basis
of caste against BJP while BJP trying to consolidate them on basis of religion
against regional parties/Congress. If the regional parties end up succeeding in
fracturing the so called rainbow alliance BJP strategy of polarization on lines
of religion won’t work anymore.
Another
challenge on the horizon is the state elections in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan
& Chhattisgarh in end of 2018 where BJP is in power. For past 3.5 years Modi
has brilliantly rallied the masses behind him portraying the opposition incumbent
governments in the states as being corrupt, partisan & up to no good. It
will fascinate to watch as how he makes the transition from being the
challenger to the incumbent. He can no longer rail against either the state or
central government as both are with BJP now. Could he face problems (like in
Gujarat (where it was the party in power) or will he modify his style to the
changing demands?
NEXT 500 DAYS:
I am sure
most of you didn’t realize that it is only approximately 500 days to the next
general election in 2019 J
One of the
complaints over past few years was that the Congress had no core constituency
it could rely on. Maybe Gujarat has shown that it could work on the rural
voters as its natural constituency to bring down BJP’s nos. in Lok Sabha.
However without making any decent inroads in BJP’s urban strongholds coming
back to power is a pipe dream.
As Prashant Jha (Hindustan Times) describes in his book “How BJP wins” that Modi considers
himself as “senapati” & for him every election campaign is a “battle”. He puts
all he has in the election campaign which might appear as desperate to some but
that’s just how he operates. Rahul & Congress party thus faces a relentless
machine in Modi which also requires them to significantly up their effort to be
in the game. Come rain or shine Congress & Rahul have to consistently keep hitting
BJP’s weak spots day in & day out without any breaks/any sort of let ups over
the next 15 months for there to be a substantial effect in 2019 general
election. This is an arduous uphill climb where there wouldn’t be overnight
success. The lead the BJP & allies
have in terms of seats (334 = 282 BJP + 52 allies) is so huge that even a loss
of 60 seats still leaves them in majority. This illustrates how tall of an
order it is too defeat the NDA government. Congress leaders in Gujarat before
the election privately admitted that more likely possibility was to push BJP below
100 to embarrass it. Similarly a more realistic goal in 2019 given the huge
buffer NDA starts with would to push BJP down to 200-220 range where its allies
either abandon it or demand more control in functioning of government thus
crippling Modi’s autonomy that enjoys currently.
For all of
BJP’s woes there has to be a course correction which is not out of the realm
for this govt. They have proven to adaptive like they did after the 2015
defeats in Delhi & Bihar & recent modifications in GST after getting
feedback from unhappy traders. But this has to be an “inflection point” just
like the GDP numbers which have continuously going down for 6 straight quarter
but now have to trend up. Same holds true for economic growth & job
creation. The hits to the economy due to Demo + GST which hit the informal sector
badly leave no room for radical reforms till after the 2019 election. So the
BJP will have limited tools in its arsenal to ensure that the economy is in
full gear come summer of 2019.
As Prashant
Jha (Hindustan Times) has said that Modi is still immensely popular 3.5 years
into his term as people don’t doubt his INTENT
& INTEGRITY. As one senior BJP
leader told Nistula Hebbar (The Hindu) “there are four stages of an electorate
being upset with you. Stage one, is that the person is upset but will still vote
for you. Stage two is that he/she is upset and may consider an alternative but
still vote for you, the third that an the upset voter will stay home, the
fourth that the upset voter will vote against you no matter the alternative. In
Gujarat we were in the middle of the second and third stage and it was Prime
Minister Modi who made the critical difference of winning our voters back.” Modi
has been the biggest asset of BJP over the past 3.5 years & have been
heavily dependent on him especially in closing stages of the campaign. They can’t
afford to have people starting to tune him out if things go south.
One thing
which I believe will work for the BJP is the hard miles Amit Shah was putting
in even when BJP was sweeping all states. He has been covering lakhs of
kilometers making forays into the East (Orissa & West Bengal & North
East) & South (TN, Kerala & Telangana) in bid to expand the footprint
of BJP in states where it is traditionally weak. During the 2014 landslide 216/282
BJP Seats came from just 8 states: UP, MP, Gujarat, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan
& Maharashtra loosely defined as the Hindi heartland. Since they had alliance
partners in Bihar & Maharashtra I will exclude them for now. In the 6 remaining
states BJP won 90 to 100% of all seats on offer. He knows that irrespective of
Modi’s popularity in 2019 there are bound to be certain losses as when one wins
close to 100% of seats the only way possible is down. To compensate for the
losses from these high strike rate states in the Hindi heartland he has been on
a relentless exercise to win compensatory seats in new states to make for any
possible losses from the Hindi heartland.
After the BJP’s
landslide win UP, Omar Abdullah famously remarked that opposition should
prepare for 2024 general election (implying that 2019 was a done deal in favor
of BJP). This election has shown that while BJP & Modi are still a
formidable fighting machine but they are by no means invincible. Urban areas
seem firmly in BJP hands right now but rural areas are the BJP’s Achilles heel.
BJP has to work hard to relieve rural distress or it could possibly get ugly in
rural seats across the country. I am sure every BJP supporter needs no reminder
about the India Shining campaign disaster in 2004. This however is not to be
interpreted as BJP losing in 2019 as it still a heavy favorite but now the
opposition at least has some chance to stop the BJP juggernaut. I would say that
the odds post Gujarat have slightly shifted from “Solid Lock for BJP” to “Strong
Lean for BJP”.
