So we have
reached the end of nothing short of a marathon election process: 9 phases over
5 weeks where 55 crore out of a possible 81 crore voted. Everyone across not
only India but also the world is waiting with baited breath as to who will form
the next government of the world’s biggest democracy
.
A slew of
polls from the various media houses have been throwing various numbers at us
over the past couple of days with almost all of them giving NDA a clear
majority. But I believe NDA by itself will be practically at the door step but
not over the halfway mark. I will explain my theory on NDA not crossing 272
mark later in the blog. The “last mile” problem that I talked about in my
previous blog has become much easier with the surge in support for NDA/BJP over
the past 2 months when they were expected to get anywhere in the 200-225 range.
I believe the “critical mass” number for NDA is 250. If they get over it
finding allies is going to be easy as smaller parties & independents always
quickly coalesce around the majority coalition to give it the sufficient numbers
to form the next government. But keep in mind that Modi just doesn’t want to simply
get to 272+. He would want to be well over 300+ to give stability to his
government. He understands that having a slim majority is invitation to
blackmail from any of his allies to pull the rug from under him on the pretext
of opposing any slightly controversial development or reform policy issue that
he might want to implement. With his pro development plank during this election
campaign there will be several tough policy decisions that need to be taken
over the next 5 years. Rather be on tenterhooks for his entire term he would
want to get what I call “blackmail proof” majority where multiple allies would
have to withdraw support to collapse the government.
That’s
brought us to the obvious question of how to get there. In my previous blog I
had put forth the “Teen Deviyan” formula for Modi to become PM: Mamta, Mayawati
& Jaylalitha. I go over them again in
order of least likely to most likely.
Mamta is dealing with issues of bad governance
in her state since she became CM in 2011 plus some level of anti-incumbency
& dissatisfaction among the Bengali electorate. With the Left pretty much a
spent force in West Bengal & BJP rising nationally including in her state she
perceives the BJP to be her main rival in this election. BJP sensing an opportunity
to make inroads in WB for the first time ever had Modi hold election rallies in
WB which was virtually unheard of in past campaigns. Thus Mamta has come out
swinging hard against Modi & been relentless & acerbic in her attacks for
the past few weeks which rules her out as a post-election partner most probably.
Mayawati has
also come out strong against Modi recently. It was interesting that she was
pretty much “silent” against BJP in the beginning of the campaign. But as the
campaign wore on BJP was gaining ground in UP including among lower caste &
Dalit’s. This erosion of her core support set the alarm bells ringing in BSP.
She suddenly started vigorously criticizing Modi & BJP in middle of campaign.
She had hoped for consolidating the Muslim vote towards BS P that was not happy
with both Samajwadi Party (SP) due to Muzzafarnagar & apathy towards
Muslims in general in spite of fielding several Muslim candidates. Thus she had
to come out openly ruling out any post poll alliance with BJP trying to woo
more secular voters to her side.
That leaves
Jaylalitha who from beginning I mentioned is the most “natural ally” for Modi. She
has enjoyed the most cordial relations with Modi in the past of all regional
party leaders. She & her party AIADMK have been the least vocal about opposing
BJP/Modi. Her 25 to 30 MP’s can help Modi secure the 300+ majority he desires.
There are 2
more leaders to add as possible partners: BJD from Orissa & YSRC from
Seemandhra. BJD recently has stated the possibility of supporting the NDA government
from outside. Jagmohan Reddy of Seemadhra has openly mentioned that he will
support anyone at Centre as he needs all the help he needs for development of the
bifurcated state Seemandhra. One can put the same logic for TRS (Telangana
Rashtra Samiti) for Telengana. But due to their closeness to Congress it might
be far-fetched possibility right now.
So instead of
the Teen Deviyan, the new formula for Modi is the “Southern formula”.
Now on to
the exciting part, the actual predictions. I stated earlier that NDA will
probably not cross 272. Here are my reasons.
Most exit
polls have been giving the BJP lead NDA coalition a clear majority at 272+. One
prediction from Chanakya is even giving the NDA 340 seats. This big of a number
for NDA me sounds farfetched to me especially with the small sample size of
just under 39K. My biggest gripe with all these polls is the sample size versus
the sheer size & diversity of the Indian electorate. I found most of these
polls have very small sample sizes of under 50K & +/-3-4% error rate which
is pretty big in psephology (scientific analysis elections).
As seen in
2004 & 2009 these exit polls were way of the mark. Some people have
theorized this due to oversampling of the urban electorate which is usually pro
BJP. I am not sure how many of these polls are done in swing rural bellwether &
swing constituencies.
Most people
attribute BJP & Modi’s recent outburst against the election commission for
not allowing him to hold an election in Varanasi plus the selfie that he took
in Gandhinagar after he voted. Very few people know that actually it was just
the final set of issues in the buildup of a long running dispute &
grievances that BJP had with the Election Commission that culminated in an
outburst last week. BJP had been complaining to EC about the booth capturing by
SP in the April 24 & April 30th phases which may easily lead to the
loss of several seats in UP. There have been similar complaints in Bihar & West
Bengal. Doing weIl in Bihar & UP is quintessential to BJP’s overall
national game. If they were really confident of doing well in these states on
back of a “Modi tsunami”, crossing 272 would not be an issue & they would
not make a fuss about the strong arm tactics by SP which keep in mind occur
frequently in Indian elections. Another point is that in the Indian heartland the
“official state machinery” is used to bias the election towards the incumbent
party which I don’t believe the opinion polls also take into account.
Based on my analysis
& number crunching I predict the following ranges for NDA, UPA &
Others. NDA: 257-260, UPA: 112-116 & Others: 169-173.
Neither am I
am anti Modi nor do I want to dampen any NDA supporter with this prediction. Modi
has orchestrated this election campaign very well like a presidential campaign where
he has appealed to the voter to vote for him rather than the local NDA candidate.
He has had a significant hand in reviving the fortunes of the BJP to become
relevant at the national level after a decade of infighting & borderline irrelevance.
Everyone agrees that BJP will be the singles largest party & NDA the
biggest coalition but I don’t agree with the margin in most these polls. But
looking at this objectively from an NDA perspective a number around 258 is
above the 250 “critical mass” I talked about earlier which should get them over
the hump & stich together a coalition government. Thus on basis of this prediction
I project Narendra Modi as the 14th Prime Minister of India.
