AAP has
truly risen like a phoenix from the ashes of its debacle in the 2014 general
election It quickly realized it’s folly of trying to contest elections all over
India by staying out of the Haryana state elections & instead trying to
focus all its limited manpower & energy rather on just Delhi. Delhi was
always it’s stronghold due to its strong presence there with its 49 day government
& it’s andolan against corruption since 2011. Kejriwal apologized for his
quitting & people of Delhi have given him a second chance which he must not
waste. Now Mr. Kejriwal has to deliver good governance to the people of Delhi
which means spending more time in the Secretariat rather than the footpath
beside Jantar Mantar. They have delivered one of the biggest landslides in multi-party
Indian election history. The closest other landslide that I can think of is the
Congress Lok Sabha victory in 1984 where they won over 400 seats. Granted many
people don’t agree with many of AAP’s left wing populist policies & their agitation
style democracy what we need to take heart in & be proud is of the fact
that however corrupt & dysfunctional our democracy might be there is a
smooth transfer of power in the democracy in our country. One has to simply
look at our neighbors or several other 3rd world countries in Asia
& Africa to see how difficult it is to truly achieve this. Neither do we
want to have a single party rule like our northern neighbors where there is one
party rule & all dissent is crushed. One party rule tends to breed more corruption,
nepotism & stagnation. In a way it is good for neither BJP or for that matter
Congress to rule each & every state in India to have diversity in ideas
& thoughts through healthy debate where the will of the electorate matters.
Coming to
the BJP which is the surely to be biggest loser in this election, (I am not
considering Congress for simply they seem to be non-relevant) this victory
surely would have set the alarm bells ringing in the BJP. Just a few months ago
they were victorious in the 4 consecutive state assembly elections since the 2014
general election & looked to be on an unstoppable roll. We have heard all
kinds of doomsday predictions such as the start of the fall of BJP to the end
of honeymoon period for Modi. This however I believe is a “good loss” for the
BJP due to the following reasons that I shall outline below
1.
Lack of overconfidence
heading into the strategically crucial polls of Bihar & UP. Another so
called easy win could have brought about an aura of invincibility around the
Modi –Shah axis. BJP cadre would have taken for granted that winning in these 2
states over next couple of years is a done deal where they simply have to put
up a candidate, do some campaigning & Amit Shah with his Midas touch will take
them over the finish line. The severe margin of defeat in Delhi will remove all
complacency from BJP & give it a good jolt making them realize that these
future elections are not going to be cakewalks. It will give them an opportunity
to rethink their strategy & plans on these upcoming elections.
2.
BJP with all its
recent success has had a rude awakening to a simple fact in multi cornered
fights that are a staple of Indian elections. When opposition coalesces either due
to absolute collapse of one party (Congress in Delhi) or due to various parties
joining hands the going gets tough as their advantage quickly evaporates. This
is exactly what the merged Janta Parivar is trying to achieve where once rivals
Mulayam, Lalu & Nitish are trying to combine their individual spent forces
into one united front with the sole aim of defeating BJP to save their regional
fiefdoms. The bigger lesson for BJP from Delhi might be not importing any more
leaders from outside like they did with Kiran Bedi. Amit Shah the shrewdest tactician
on the block nowadays should know very well from the Bedi experiment in Delhi
that he should not let JD(U) rebel Jita Ram Manjhi enter BJP. This might
alieantate the BJP base rather than helping them out. A more tactful move would
be to let him form his own party, split the existing JD (U) vote & benefit immensely
from a tri-party contest.
3.
BJP’s rise to power
has also brought to the forefront the radical voices in the BJP who have outspoken
on controversial topics that most of the electorate doesn’t cre about anymore.
It has given free ammunition to the opposition to target BJP & scare the
voters who Modi had brought over to his fold last year on plank of development
& prosperity. Modi has to rein in all these fringe radical elements before
they break the broad coalition that Modi worked tirelessly last year to being
to his side to win the election. Or otherwise it could very well be that BJP’s
boat is sunk by more self-inflicted damage than any credible opposition.
4.
With the budget around
the corner the growth agenda has to be put again put on a fast track. Many of
the controversial reforms have been put on backburner due to the radical
changes it will bring about. Modi has to start delivering on the loads of
promises he made as people unlike earlier times have become more aspirational
& will become more restless as time goes on. Modi can’t simply keep talking
about change forever without delivering something substantial to show for. Voters
showed in the last general election that unless the government gives the change
they voted for, they will be equally quick in getting rid of the current government
& there is no elongated honeymoon period anymore.
Modi
knows that even though he enjoys comfortable majority in Lok Sabha he can’t
pass any major reform without any kind of majority in the Rajya Sabha. Rajya
Sabha members are elected by state assemblies. So currently government has to
pass all reforms by way of ordinances which is neither ideal nor suitable in
the long run. So the real power lies if one can capture the major assemblies to
pack the Rajya Sabha with as many of your members as possible. This is where
Bihar & UP come in. Winning these means he can nominate quite a few Rajya
Sabha members; control both houses of Parliament & be in control of his
reform & development agenda. He knows that without delivering the changes
he promised there is no way he gets reelected in 2019. Get majority in Rajya
Sabha is essential so that without relying on Opposition he can pass bills in
Rajya Sabha. Sensing this opposition is trying to create as much ruckus
currently as they fear losing control in Rajya Sabha in a couple of years. They
fear that they will be merely a sideshow to any decision that the Modi government
might take during last few years of its term. A loss in Delhi will hurt in
short term, a possible loss of face due to high profile status of it being the
capital of the nation. But Modi in the long term would rather lose Delhi &
win the grand prizes of Bihar & UP. This loss should help rather than hurt
BJP in its goals over r the next few years. There are no “good losses” in any walk
of life but this might be the closest to a “good loss” that they ever could
have had.
