2014 Lok Sabha election prediction & post poll alliances

So we have reached the end of nothing short of a marathon election process: 9 phases over 5 weeks where 55 crore out of a possible 81 crore voted. Everyone across not only India but also the world is waiting with baited breath as to who will form the next government of the world’s biggest democracy

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A slew of polls from the various media houses have been throwing various numbers at us over the past couple of days with almost all of them giving NDA a clear majority. But I believe NDA by itself will be practically at the door step but not over the halfway mark. I will explain my theory on NDA not crossing 272 mark later in the blog. The “last mile” problem that I talked about in my previous blog has become much easier with the surge in support for NDA/BJP over the past 2 months when they were expected to get anywhere in the 200-225 range. I believe the “critical mass” number for NDA is 250. If they get over it finding allies is going to be easy as smaller parties & independents always quickly coalesce around the majority coalition to give it the sufficient numbers to form the next government. But keep in mind that Modi just doesn’t want to simply get to 272+. He would want to be well over 300+ to give stability to his government. He understands that having a slim majority is invitation to blackmail from any of his allies to pull the rug from under him on the pretext of opposing any slightly controversial development or reform policy issue that he might want to implement. With his pro development plank during this election campaign there will be several tough policy decisions that need to be taken over the next 5 years. Rather be on tenterhooks for his entire term he would want to get what I call “blackmail proof” majority where multiple allies would have to withdraw support to collapse the government.

That’s brought us to the obvious question of how to get there. In my previous blog I had put forth the “Teen Deviyan” formula for Modi to become PM: Mamta, Mayawati  & Jaylalitha. I go over them again in order of least likely to most likely.

 Mamta is dealing with issues of bad governance in her state since she became CM in 2011 plus some level of anti-incumbency & dissatisfaction among the Bengali electorate. With the Left pretty much a spent force in West Bengal & BJP rising nationally including in her state she perceives the BJP to be her main rival in this election. BJP sensing an opportunity to make inroads in WB for the first time ever had Modi hold election rallies in WB which was virtually unheard of in past campaigns. Thus Mamta has come out swinging hard against Modi & been relentless & acerbic in her attacks for the past few weeks which rules her out as a post-election partner most probably.

Mayawati has also come out strong against Modi recently. It was interesting that she was pretty much “silent” against BJP in the beginning of the campaign. But as the campaign wore on BJP was gaining ground in UP including among lower caste & Dalit’s. This erosion of her core support set the alarm bells ringing in BSP. She suddenly started vigorously criticizing Modi & BJP in middle of campaign. She had hoped for consolidating the Muslim vote towards BS P that was not happy with both Samajwadi Party (SP) due to Muzzafarnagar & apathy towards Muslims in general in spite of fielding several Muslim candidates. Thus she had to come out openly ruling out any post poll alliance with BJP trying to woo more secular voters to her side.

That leaves Jaylalitha who from beginning I mentioned is the most “natural ally” for Modi. She has enjoyed the most cordial relations with Modi in the past of all regional party leaders. She & her party AIADMK have been the least vocal about opposing BJP/Modi. Her 25 to 30 MP’s can help Modi secure the 300+ majority he desires.

There are 2 more leaders to add as possible partners: BJD from Orissa & YSRC from Seemandhra. BJD recently has stated the possibility of supporting the NDA government from outside. Jagmohan Reddy of Seemadhra has openly mentioned that he will support anyone at Centre as he needs all the help he needs for development of the bifurcated state Seemandhra. One can put the same logic for TRS (Telangana Rashtra Samiti) for Telengana. But due to their closeness to Congress it might be far-fetched possibility right now.

So instead of the Teen Deviyan, the new formula for Modi is the “Southern formula”.

Now on to the exciting part, the actual predictions. I stated earlier that NDA will probably not cross 272. Here are my reasons.

Most exit polls have been giving the BJP lead NDA coalition a clear majority at 272+. One prediction from Chanakya is even giving the NDA 340 seats. This big of a number for NDA me sounds farfetched to me especially with the small sample size of just under 39K. My biggest gripe with all these polls is the sample size versus the sheer size & diversity of the Indian electorate. I found most of these polls have very small sample sizes of under 50K & +/-3-4% error rate which is pretty big in psephology (scientific analysis elections).

As seen in 2004 & 2009 these exit polls were way of the mark. Some people have theorized this due to oversampling of the urban electorate which is usually pro BJP. I am not sure how many of these polls are done in swing rural bellwether & swing constituencies.

Most people attribute BJP & Modi’s recent outburst against the election commission for not allowing him to hold an election in Varanasi plus the selfie that he took in Gandhinagar after he voted. Very few people know that actually it was just the final set of issues in the buildup of a long running dispute & grievances that BJP had with the Election Commission that culminated in an outburst last week. BJP had been complaining to EC about the booth capturing by SP in the April 24 & April 30^th phases which may easily lead to the loss of several seats in UP. There have been similar complaints in Bihar & West Bengal. Doing weIl in Bihar & UP is quintessential to BJP’s overall national game. If they were really confident of doing well in these states on back of a “Modi tsunami”, crossing 272 would not be an issue & they would not make a fuss about the strong arm tactics by SP which keep in mind occur frequently in Indian elections. Another point is that in the Indian heartland the “official state machinery” is used to bias the election towards the incumbent party which I don’t believe the opinion polls also take into account.

Based on my analysis & number crunching I predict the following ranges for NDA, UPA & Others. NDA: 257-260, UPA: 112-116 & Others: 169-173.

Neither am I am anti Modi nor do I want to dampen any NDA supporter with this prediction. Modi has orchestrated this election campaign very well like a presidential campaign where he has appealed to the voter to vote for him rather than the local NDA candidate. He has had a significant hand in reviving the fortunes of the BJP to become relevant at the national level after a decade of infighting & borderline irrelevance. Everyone agrees that BJP will be the singles largest party & NDA the biggest coalition but I don’t agree with the margin in most these polls. But looking at this objectively from an NDA perspective a number around 258 is above the 250 “critical mass” I talked about earlier which should get them over the hump & stich together a coalition government. Thus on basis of this prediction I project Narendra Modi as the 14^th Prime Minister of India.