So finally the 2016 US presidential election is upon us which seems in hindsight light years away from the actual start of campaigning in early 2015. This marathon has proven to be one hell of a ride for not only the actual candidates but also for the electorate, politicians & media alike. Even Sir Arthur Conan Doyle or Agatha Christie would have been hard pressed to write a script long enough which would match all the twists & turns that this presidential campaign has taken over past 1.5 years. With the unconventional nature of campaign this time around compared to past campaigns mostly courtesy of Mr. Trump, many people have simply thrown their hands up at trying to predict what happens on Nov 8th. As you all might already know by now that I for sure am not one of those people trying to shy away from putting on my psephologists hat & trying to predict the outcome of this election. Compared to my previous blogs on elections I have purposely tried to wait as long as possible to collect the most information possible to account for the now daily shocks & twists in the campaign. With so many of them coming on a frequent basis you never know if there is just another one lurking around the corner ready to pop right up just before the election.
As you most of you very well know that the system in US presidential election is of electoral college. By winning a state & you get all of it's electoral college votes (except Maine & Nebraska where it's split by districts). Electoral votes assigned to each state are proportional to the population of that state vs nationally. With 538 total electoral votes the magic number for each candidate is 270.
So let's begin with the obvious blue state electoral counts for Clinton vs red state electoral count for Trump which is 223 for Clinton & 158 for Trump. The ones in grey are tossup states which I shall categorize in various sub categories that I shall describe in more detail.
FAIRLY SOLID LEAN RED OR BLUE
All of these states are classified as tossups but are truly fairly solid Democratic such as Michigan, Colorado & Pennsylvania or fairly solid Republican like Utah , Arizona & Georgia. Let's examine all of them one by one
Michigan: This has been a solid blue state that hasn't gone for Republican since 1988 for George W Bush. Trump is hoping to capitalize with the disenchantment with white low income union workers who have seen their jobs dwindle over the years due to Recession & shipping of manufacturing jobs to overseas. This might be the best bet for Trump to break the Midwest Blue Wall of Democrats as he is more far behind in Wisconsin & Minnesota. With the recent reports of lower turnout among African Americans in this state where they make up sizable chunk of the population due to lack of enthusiasm this might put the state within margin of error of being won by Trump but at the end of the day Democrats should hold their lead here & win the state by a smaller than usual but safe margin.
Colorado: This state has gradually tuned towards the Democrats over the past 2 cycles & with the change in demographics with the Latino population plus the electorate getting younger due to influx of young millennials this seems like another stretch for Trump to win. Polls getting close here could simply be attributed to tightening of polls all over the country.
Pennsylvania: This is a unique state where it can easily chopped into 2 divergent states to understand it better. First there is Pittsburgh & Philadelphia which account for most of the state's population & then there is the rural Pennsylvania in between which is solidly Republican. Many times the election here comes down to suburbs of Philadelphia among the white working class college educated voters. Republican strategists for several of the past presidential cycles have talked about capturing Pennsylvania but it remains "fool's gold" for them. With Trump doing poorly among white college educated women Trump campaign has put Ivanka last month & again in coming days (one of their best female surrogates) to talk to the base in the Philly suburbs to boost the turnout in usually solidly Republican stronghold. If Trump loses among these voter as badly as he is doing right now in the polls in these suburbs it is "game, set, match" for him here are impossible to overcome with gains in rural Pennsylvania. Due to the strategic importance of this state the Clinton's & Obama's are ending their campaign on Monday night in Philly to ensure there is no enthusiasm gap on Tuesday. With no early voting in this state the result here depends all on single day turnout on Nov 8th.
Georgia: Currently polls show Clinton down by just 2 or 3 points in Georgia which Democrats think can be easily overcome come election day. Earlier Clinton when was up big nationally after the release of the infamous Access Hollywood tape, this state became close for a while leading Democrats to think that it was suddenly winnable, but even then it looked like a stretch to me. With the now widely reported lack of enthusiasm among African Americans it looks like a fantasy for Clinton to win here unless college educated Republicans suddenly decided to stay home.
Utah: This is one of the most fascinating states due to an independent challenger here called Evan McMullin of whom you probably never heard of before. He has made this a rare three way race in presidential politics. He is a former CIA officer & lifelong Republican who is contesting as independent & as an alternative for the conservatives who can't bring themselves around to voting for Trump .Many Mormons (who make majority in Utah) dislike Trump & along with other well educated whites have an option in voting for a conservative candidate other than Trump. But Trump is leading here currently with a small margin & belief is that McMullin is more of a "spoiler" candidate & enough conservatives will eventually come around to voting for Trump.
Arizona: Another one of the traditionally red states that "appeared" to be in play when Trump was losing badly in the polls but with Republicans eventually "coming home" to Trump looks kind of out of reach for Democrats. Even with the reported higher than usual Latino turnouts the early voting gives an edge to Republicans. Democrats are wishing for miracle that a massive turnout in Phoenix against controversial sheriff Joe Arpaio who is also is up for reelection on Nov 8 energizes the base (including Hispanics) enough to come out & vote in huge number also giving them an outside chance in winning the state for Hillary. With the changing demographics & rising voting eligible Latino population this will however be a swing state & future flip for Democrats.
So going back to the map the count is now 268 for Clinton 191 for Trump.
With Clinton virtually at the magic 270 number she needs to only win one more of the true swing states while Trump has to "run the table" & win each & every one of them. Many in the media have called this scenario for Trump (which by the way the poker aficionados will love) is "drawing to a straight".
SLIGHT LEAN RED OR BLUE
Iowa: Obama twice won Iowa by healthy margins but this time around the Trump is ahead both in the polls & early voting. With Iowa having one of the highest % of Whites in the country, plus the % of Whites with college degrees being one of the lowest this seemed like a natural pickup for Trump who is resonating with the non college educated white folk in Iowa.
New Hampshire: New Hampshire is one of the most quirkiest swing states out there which usually has a mind of it's own. They don't follow any pattern or trend that other states follow nationally every election cycle. Polling has consistently shown Clinton up by a big margin. However with the polls now showing a closer race I wouldn't call it a tossup just yet & expect to see a narrow Clinton victory here.
Ohio: Ohio has been called the "bellwether" state of US presidential elections with it not voting for a winner just once in 1960 over the past 68 years. With the closing down of factories in the Rust Belt & shipping of jobs overseas Trump's strong anti trade & anti immigration message has resonated very well not only among core Republicans but also among life long union blue collar Democrats. Many Ohioans are looking for jobs to revitalize their towns devastated by globalization & Great Recession. They are ready to vote for Trump while putting aside many of Trump's personal failings & scandals. Hillary & her surrogates have been pushing hard to steer it towards her but it might well a lost cause right now as the early voting trends show here Trump to be ahead. Since this is the prototypical state where Trump should be favored to win if on election day it starts to trend towards Hillary then you can call the election as done for Trump.
Nevada: Nevada is another classic "bellwether" state of US presidential elections with it not voting for a winner just once in 1976 over the past 100 years. (Yes you read it right One Hundred years ). Election in Nevada is decided by the difference of votes in Clark County which has Las Vegas & rest of rural Nevada. Many times this tie is so small that the outcome depends on the swing county of Washoe county (which houses Reno). According to Jon Ralston the guru of polling in Nevada the Democrats have built up huge 70K+ lead in early voting in Nevada matching the leads seen in 2012 when Obama won the state comfortably. He has said that with leads in both Clark & Washoe counties it could game over for GOP in Nevada.
With Clinton now over the 270 the question now remains as the margin of victory in Electoral college. This leaves me with the 2 truly tossup states that are very hard for me to call.
VIRTUAL TOSSUPS
NORTH CAROLINA: North Carolina used to be a solid Republican state since the South tuned over to Republicans around 50 years ago. Exceptions were Jimmy Carter in 1976 who was a Southerner & in 2008 when Obama with his coalition was able to breach the Republican wall in this state. Obama won the state by extremely small margin in 2008 & lost of Romney in 2012. With the changing demographics & influx of young population in Raleigh Durham & Charlotte this has turned into the quintessential purple swing state. State could break either way on Nov 8 but due to the early voting numbers favoring Republicans + lower early voting numbers among African Americans (who form a significant % of the population out there ) & recent polls showing Trump in slight lead we can give the state to Trump with a narrow victory.
FLORIDA : This is the most classic & famous of them all swing states. There are so many factors & swings in vote both ways that this make predicting this state usually hard as always. A larger share of older population of retirees should vastly favor Trump but the anti Mexican rants by Trump make the Latino vote interesting as many solidly Cuban Americans who in earlier generation were life long Republicans their kids might just not be voting for Trump. Northern part of state is Republican while southern part of the state is Democratic with the swing I-4 corridor (Tampa to Orlando) in between which usually decides the outcome of the election. Based on the reporting from the ground in Florida & early voting trends which are favoring Republicans right now. However this could easily end as nail biter like in 2000 but at least for Clinton who has other paths to victory presidency doesn't totally depend on winning Florida.
Finally I did give the 3rd district in Maine to Trump who has a good shot there due to demographics.
This bring us to final count of 278 for Hillary & 260 for Trump.
It looks like Clinton right now on track to win the election by 3-4% nationally in the popular vote.
Giving Florida & North Carolina to Trump will make the final map look more close in terms of electoral college but if Florida & North Carolina break other way for Hillary it would make it an easy win for Hillary (323 electoral votes) somewhat similar to the Obama 2012 margin (332 electoral votes). If we have a sort of repeat of 2012 it might just be a a big letdown for some after all that has happened in last 4 years & promises of change in electoral map in this cycle,
Trump has to not only win the regular red states but also all of the swing states like North Carolina, Florida, Nevada, Ohio, Iowa, New Hampshire & one more large blue state. His margin of error right now is non-existent. Clinton on other hand can either simply play defense in all places where she is ahead or go on offense & by simply winning any one of the swing states that I mentioned above make it virtually impossible for Trump to win.
Trump is polling within margin of error in many of the swing states. Even If Trump can close the gap in these swing states he won't automatically be on track for a win as most people forget in the all the hoopla about polls & trends that you also need to have the voter go out to the poll booth & cast his vote. In a tied race Hillary's vastly superior ground game (to Trump's non existent one) might just make the difference. These precious additional votes could make the difference in swing states which could be won by razor thin margins. Trump absence of a ground game will hurt him to "close the deal" in the states where enthusiasm simply won't carry him over the finish line.
As you most of you very well know that the system in US presidential election is of electoral college. By winning a state & you get all of it's electoral college votes (except Maine & Nebraska where it's split by districts). Electoral votes assigned to each state are proportional to the population of that state vs nationally. With 538 total electoral votes the magic number for each candidate is 270.
So let's begin with the obvious blue state electoral counts for Clinton vs red state electoral count for Trump which is 223 for Clinton & 158 for Trump. The ones in grey are tossup states which I shall categorize in various sub categories that I shall describe in more detail.
FAIRLY SOLID LEAN RED OR BLUE
All of these states are classified as tossups but are truly fairly solid Democratic such as Michigan, Colorado & Pennsylvania or fairly solid Republican like Utah , Arizona & Georgia. Let's examine all of them one by one
Michigan: This has been a solid blue state that hasn't gone for Republican since 1988 for George W Bush. Trump is hoping to capitalize with the disenchantment with white low income union workers who have seen their jobs dwindle over the years due to Recession & shipping of manufacturing jobs to overseas. This might be the best bet for Trump to break the Midwest Blue Wall of Democrats as he is more far behind in Wisconsin & Minnesota. With the recent reports of lower turnout among African Americans in this state where they make up sizable chunk of the population due to lack of enthusiasm this might put the state within margin of error of being won by Trump but at the end of the day Democrats should hold their lead here & win the state by a smaller than usual but safe margin.
Colorado: This state has gradually tuned towards the Democrats over the past 2 cycles & with the change in demographics with the Latino population plus the electorate getting younger due to influx of young millennials this seems like another stretch for Trump to win. Polls getting close here could simply be attributed to tightening of polls all over the country.
Pennsylvania: This is a unique state where it can easily chopped into 2 divergent states to understand it better. First there is Pittsburgh & Philadelphia which account for most of the state's population & then there is the rural Pennsylvania in between which is solidly Republican. Many times the election here comes down to suburbs of Philadelphia among the white working class college educated voters. Republican strategists for several of the past presidential cycles have talked about capturing Pennsylvania but it remains "fool's gold" for them. With Trump doing poorly among white college educated women Trump campaign has put Ivanka last month & again in coming days (one of their best female surrogates) to talk to the base in the Philly suburbs to boost the turnout in usually solidly Republican stronghold. If Trump loses among these voter as badly as he is doing right now in the polls in these suburbs it is "game, set, match" for him here are impossible to overcome with gains in rural Pennsylvania. Due to the strategic importance of this state the Clinton's & Obama's are ending their campaign on Monday night in Philly to ensure there is no enthusiasm gap on Tuesday. With no early voting in this state the result here depends all on single day turnout on Nov 8th.
Georgia: Currently polls show Clinton down by just 2 or 3 points in Georgia which Democrats think can be easily overcome come election day. Earlier Clinton when was up big nationally after the release of the infamous Access Hollywood tape, this state became close for a while leading Democrats to think that it was suddenly winnable, but even then it looked like a stretch to me. With the now widely reported lack of enthusiasm among African Americans it looks like a fantasy for Clinton to win here unless college educated Republicans suddenly decided to stay home.
Utah: This is one of the most fascinating states due to an independent challenger here called Evan McMullin of whom you probably never heard of before. He has made this a rare three way race in presidential politics. He is a former CIA officer & lifelong Republican who is contesting as independent & as an alternative for the conservatives who can't bring themselves around to voting for Trump .Many Mormons (who make majority in Utah) dislike Trump & along with other well educated whites have an option in voting for a conservative candidate other than Trump. But Trump is leading here currently with a small margin & belief is that McMullin is more of a "spoiler" candidate & enough conservatives will eventually come around to voting for Trump.
Arizona: Another one of the traditionally red states that "appeared" to be in play when Trump was losing badly in the polls but with Republicans eventually "coming home" to Trump looks kind of out of reach for Democrats. Even with the reported higher than usual Latino turnouts the early voting gives an edge to Republicans. Democrats are wishing for miracle that a massive turnout in Phoenix against controversial sheriff Joe Arpaio who is also is up for reelection on Nov 8 energizes the base (including Hispanics) enough to come out & vote in huge number also giving them an outside chance in winning the state for Hillary. With the changing demographics & rising voting eligible Latino population this will however be a swing state & future flip for Democrats.
So going back to the map the count is now 268 for Clinton 191 for Trump.
With Clinton virtually at the magic 270 number she needs to only win one more of the true swing states while Trump has to "run the table" & win each & every one of them. Many in the media have called this scenario for Trump (which by the way the poker aficionados will love) is "drawing to a straight".
SLIGHT LEAN RED OR BLUE
Iowa: Obama twice won Iowa by healthy margins but this time around the Trump is ahead both in the polls & early voting. With Iowa having one of the highest % of Whites in the country, plus the % of Whites with college degrees being one of the lowest this seemed like a natural pickup for Trump who is resonating with the non college educated white folk in Iowa.
New Hampshire: New Hampshire is one of the most quirkiest swing states out there which usually has a mind of it's own. They don't follow any pattern or trend that other states follow nationally every election cycle. Polling has consistently shown Clinton up by a big margin. However with the polls now showing a closer race I wouldn't call it a tossup just yet & expect to see a narrow Clinton victory here.
Ohio: Ohio has been called the "bellwether" state of US presidential elections with it not voting for a winner just once in 1960 over the past 68 years. With the closing down of factories in the Rust Belt & shipping of jobs overseas Trump's strong anti trade & anti immigration message has resonated very well not only among core Republicans but also among life long union blue collar Democrats. Many Ohioans are looking for jobs to revitalize their towns devastated by globalization & Great Recession. They are ready to vote for Trump while putting aside many of Trump's personal failings & scandals. Hillary & her surrogates have been pushing hard to steer it towards her but it might well a lost cause right now as the early voting trends show here Trump to be ahead. Since this is the prototypical state where Trump should be favored to win if on election day it starts to trend towards Hillary then you can call the election as done for Trump.
Nevada: Nevada is another classic "bellwether" state of US presidential elections with it not voting for a winner just once in 1976 over the past 100 years. (Yes you read it right One Hundred years ). Election in Nevada is decided by the difference of votes in Clark County which has Las Vegas & rest of rural Nevada. Many times this tie is so small that the outcome depends on the swing county of Washoe county (which houses Reno). According to Jon Ralston the guru of polling in Nevada the Democrats have built up huge 70K+ lead in early voting in Nevada matching the leads seen in 2012 when Obama won the state comfortably. He has said that with leads in both Clark & Washoe counties it could game over for GOP in Nevada.
With Clinton now over the 270 the question now remains as the margin of victory in Electoral college. This leaves me with the 2 truly tossup states that are very hard for me to call.
VIRTUAL TOSSUPS
NORTH CAROLINA: North Carolina used to be a solid Republican state since the South tuned over to Republicans around 50 years ago. Exceptions were Jimmy Carter in 1976 who was a Southerner & in 2008 when Obama with his coalition was able to breach the Republican wall in this state. Obama won the state by extremely small margin in 2008 & lost of Romney in 2012. With the changing demographics & influx of young population in Raleigh Durham & Charlotte this has turned into the quintessential purple swing state. State could break either way on Nov 8 but due to the early voting numbers favoring Republicans + lower early voting numbers among African Americans (who form a significant % of the population out there ) & recent polls showing Trump in slight lead we can give the state to Trump with a narrow victory.
FLORIDA : This is the most classic & famous of them all swing states. There are so many factors & swings in vote both ways that this make predicting this state usually hard as always. A larger share of older population of retirees should vastly favor Trump but the anti Mexican rants by Trump make the Latino vote interesting as many solidly Cuban Americans who in earlier generation were life long Republicans their kids might just not be voting for Trump. Northern part of state is Republican while southern part of the state is Democratic with the swing I-4 corridor (Tampa to Orlando) in between which usually decides the outcome of the election. Based on the reporting from the ground in Florida & early voting trends which are favoring Republicans right now. However this could easily end as nail biter like in 2000 but at least for Clinton who has other paths to victory presidency doesn't totally depend on winning Florida.
Finally I did give the 3rd district in Maine to Trump who has a good shot there due to demographics.
This bring us to final count of 278 for Hillary & 260 for Trump.
It looks like Clinton right now on track to win the election by 3-4% nationally in the popular vote.
Giving Florida & North Carolina to Trump will make the final map look more close in terms of electoral college but if Florida & North Carolina break other way for Hillary it would make it an easy win for Hillary (323 electoral votes) somewhat similar to the Obama 2012 margin (332 electoral votes). If we have a sort of repeat of 2012 it might just be a a big letdown for some after all that has happened in last 4 years & promises of change in electoral map in this cycle,
Trump has to not only win the regular red states but also all of the swing states like North Carolina, Florida, Nevada, Ohio, Iowa, New Hampshire & one more large blue state. His margin of error right now is non-existent. Clinton on other hand can either simply play defense in all places where she is ahead or go on offense & by simply winning any one of the swing states that I mentioned above make it virtually impossible for Trump to win.
Trump is polling within margin of error in many of the swing states. Even If Trump can close the gap in these swing states he won't automatically be on track for a win as most people forget in the all the hoopla about polls & trends that you also need to have the voter go out to the poll booth & cast his vote. In a tied race Hillary's vastly superior ground game (to Trump's non existent one) might just make the difference. These precious additional votes could make the difference in swing states which could be won by razor thin margins. Trump absence of a ground game will hurt him to "close the deal" in the states where enthusiasm simply won't carry him over the finish line.
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