BJP needs more “Chai pe charka” not “Gai per charcha”

So Bihar did manage to throw a huge surprise this past Sunday. The surprise wasn’t the victory of Nitish & Lalu’s “Mahagathbandhan “ but rather the huge margin of victory over BJP led NDA coalition. They achieved a staggering 2/3 majority with an astronomical 8 % difference in vote share.  More on the BJP drubbing later but my first words will be spent on the victors.

Nitish probably took the gamble of his life by breaking away from BJP when it installed Modi as its prime ministerial candidate around 2 years ago. He did manage to survive a wipeout in the national elections of 2014 when BJP rode to power on backs of Modi’s sheer persona & smart alliances with Ram Vilas Paswan’s LJP & Upendra Kushwaha’s RLSP. A three cornered fight (with Lalu & Congress) meant that NDA captured 32 of 41 Lok Sabha seats. Battling for political survival he did the unthinkable, joined hands with his arch enemy Lalu Prasad Yadav to remain in power. Joining hands with Congress the 3 parties assuming their votes transferred had a numerical strength greater than NDA. This ensured that the anti-BJP vote which had highly splintered during the Lok Sabha elections had coalesced around a single “Mahagathbandhan “ candidate ensuring a numerical superiority for them. A lot of Muslim majority seats during Lok Sabha elections had gone to BJP as the voters didn’t know which Muslim candidate was the best one to support. This issue also disappeared with this Grand Alliance being formed.  This massive vote for the alliance is thumps up from Bihar’s electorate to the development which has occurred under Nitish’s rule in past 10 years despite the BJP’s constant reminders to people that Bihar will return to “Jungle Raj” with Lalu in tow. This is in stark contrast to the so called “lost decade” of Bihar under Lalu & his wife Rabri Devi where the state basically stagnated. The only downside for Nitish in this verdict is that Lalu RJD now has won more seats than Nitish’s JD (U). Biggest priority for Nitish is to keep Lalu’s family at arm’s length from all affairs of state. Already there are rumors of Lalu preparing his son to be installed as heir apparent with a demand for deputy chief minister’s position. Lalu having gained majority of seats by delivering his Muslim-Yadav vote is going to surely demand his so called “pound of flesh”.  He has gone on record saying that he won’t interfere but there can be no guarantees with Lalu. His party members having returned to power after so long will want to have a say in day to day affairs of the government.   The bigger challenge for Nitish is not how to take Bihar forward but rather how to prevent RJD from messing up the huge mandate given to them. In today’s modern age India’s electorate has become not only aspirational & well informed but also restless as seen from several elections over last few years. There is absolute no benefit of doubt given & the new mantra is “perform or perish”. You can argue all you want about castes & alliances but with the young population (median age of 27) that is going to slowly become less important over time with increasing % of youth voters being eligible to vote in every new election cycle. The question on everyone’s mind is that how long this marriage of necessity between two polar opposites can continue before ego & ambitions get in the way & a divorce. The government’ success will depend more on the whims & demands on Lalu more than the man in power Nitish Kumar.

Now taking up the same point of “perform or perish” Modi has to realize that if he is not able to do any reforms & deliver growth he is will be on the chopping block in 2019 if people don’t feel that they are not better off than what they were in 2014. The smart alliances he & Amit Shah formed in 2014 were highly successful in multi-cornered fights in several states benefitting from the “first past the post” system. But they would to do well to remember that even with the massive 330+ majority in Lok Sabha as my earlier blog had pointed out that they only received 38% of the vote. This is essential means that if the remaining 60% can put aside their differences & get tighter they can in essence turn the tables & rout BJP. For e.g. if Mulayam (SP), Congress & Mayawati (BSP) join forces in UP they can ensure that BJP has no way to form the next government in 2017. Bigger question is that if arch enemies Mayawati & Mulayam can see eye to eye. But in politics as it happened with Lalu & Nitish you never say never. Many other states with elections upcoming the non-BJP parties are kicking the tires of teaming up like they did in Bihar which would be very bad news for BJP led NDA. BJP can’t the pin he loss completely on “wrongly counting the social arithmetic of Mahagathbandhan”. This can’t account for the 8% vote share gulf between both the alliances which was just 5% in Lok Sabha & that too was with counting Jita Ram Manjhi supporters in the Mahagathbandhan alliance versus NDA today.  Sure the BJP led NDA alliance did start with a 5% deficit/disadvantage but they themselves scored “ so many own goals”. One of the major ones was not projecting a well-recognized leader like Sushil Kumar Modi to counteract Nitish Kumar. Modi’s promise of progress & development didn’t strike a chord with the hearts & minds of Biharis who already have seen progress in their state under Nitish. So with Modi’s USP of development not seem to be working in the first couple of phases BJP turned to older policy of Hindutva to consolidate the Hindu vote to BJP’s side. Talk of beef ban, advertisements of a woman hugging a cow & firecrackers being burst in Pakistan if BJP lost probably ended up hurting BJP more with some fence sitters & minorities flocking to Mahagathbandhan thus ensuring that rout was on. Mohan Bhagwat’s comments about rethink on reservation would have spooked some of the OBC’s & EBC’s from supporting any of the Paswan & Manjhi’s candidates which would explain their drubbing in these polls. Nitsh also taking a page from Modi’s book turned the battle vs. Modi into a Bihar vs “Bahari” battle for Bihar’s pride. Anymore remembers Modi’s “ Gujarati asmita” jibe at “Bahari” Sonia Gandhi when she came to rallies in Gujarat during assembly elections?

This massacre in Bihar has put a kobosh on any hopes that Modi had of capturing majority in the Rajya Sabha. The next few assembly elections in Bengal, Assam, Tamil Nadu, Punjab & UP cant’ swing the arithmetic in favor of BJP a lot as BJP has very little presence in many of those states. Even if it can score victories in some of them the makeup of Rajya Sabha won’t change till the very end of his term. I am not sure if he wanted the campaign to go negative to this extent in the first place but now is the time for course correction. He doesn’t see eye to eye with opposition over several bills & issues. To move forward he will require their assistance on passing anything in Rajya Sabha. There could be common ground formed on bills such as GST Bill (Goods & Services Bill) with Congress who introduced it when they were in power. He will have to forget about more controversial reforms like Land Acquisition Bill which looks absolutely dead in the water.  Until now he has used the massive 2014 mandate for him as a sort of “my way or highway” blank check to push through his vision of reform agenda. He needs to now compromise & get consensus to move forward. After all governance is also about getting along with opposition to find a way to pass legislation. He still has 3.5 years left on his clock before next election & if things don’t improve the electorate will throw him out of power as easily as they elected him. Ministers like Mahesh Sharma, VK Singh, Giriraj Kishore and others have embarrassed the government with their remarks on the Dadri killing, the killing of Dalits in Haryana and the beef controversy - which has deflected attention away from all the positives that the government has done until now. All the oxygen in the media is being consumed by these daily controversies generated by just a few individuals who are giving free talking points to the opposition to relentlessly attack the government.  Modi has uptil now refrained from calling out these individuals publicly but he needs to send a strong message by dropping these MP’s from the cabinet. This will send out an unambiguous message to all party members especially all the hotheads that no rabble rousing or diversion of the growth agenda with irresponsible statements will be tolerated any longer.

Modi shepherded the NDA coalition to huge majority in the 2014 general election on his promise of growth & development & making the life of common man better who suffered under massive price rise, corruption & lack of opportunities under UPA-II. He was able to tap into the aspirations of millions of youth & swing voters with his image of being a reformer & skilled administrator which lead to prosperity in Gujarat. Even several minority voters who had never voted for BJP gave him a chance to help improve their lives. However the fringe element in the BJP has completely taken over airwaves with their illogical & insensitive statements. This is alienating the same voters who propelled Modi’s to victory in 2014. This along with the closing of ranks among opposition parties as seen in Bihar will wipe out all of the gains from 2014. Modi has to take charge & regain control of the message that has gone completely sideways since May 2014 or he risks being a one-time PM. After all what drove the masses to vote for BJP was development & not beef. On a lighter note the joke doing the rounds on social media after Bihar results were that people not cows vote. What Modi & BJP desperately needs more is “Chai pe charka” & not “Gai per charcha”.

Who will win the Republican nomination for 2016 election & who is the best bet for Republicans in 2016

Let me begin by saying that I am not a Republican supporter. Putting on my psephologists/analyst’s hat I shall try to predict the Republican nominee for 2016 presidential election. The job of predicting who will win is difficult based on 2 factors.  One is that today the Republican stage is more crowded that the 405 freeway in LA in rush hour on a Friday. Out the 17 original candidates, 15 brave ones are still left standing with 2 of them: Rick Perry & Scott Walker having bitten the dust. 2nd factor is that in the last round in 2012 all the major candidates from Newt Gingrich to Herman Cain to Rick Perry to Rick Santorum lead at one point making the final outcome not know until well into the primary season.

To analyze this field which is as large as the Duggar family we have to begin with the elephant in the room, current front runner Donald Trump. He has successfully managed to tap into the anger & paranoia of the right wing Tea party members with his with constant stream of xenophobic & racist statements. He might win over the fringe elements of Republican Party blaming all the ills of this country on Mexico or China. But it is not going to win him any independent or Democratic support come November 2016. He has been very short on policy & vague on specifics. His popularity numbers were what I felt like the seasonality temperature variations, rising as the summer wore on peaking in July & August & now starting to cool down as fall sets in. Opponents have constantly attacked him for his past history & statements regarding his belief in conservatism. As more skeletons fall out of the closet it will start to chip away in his poll numbers which have declined recently. He will simply be an entertaining sideshow by the time primaries are in full swing next year. Question is not when goes down but does he go down kicking & screaming sinking the Republican boat with him or not.

Ben Carson is neck & neck with Trump in the polls as of today. He doesn’t seem to have the aura of a candidate who appears presidential. Even though has raised a lot of money recently he hasn’t been able to articulate any policy point well. He appears too laid back to make it through the tough grind of the primary. After 8 years of presidential rule by an African American in the White House not sure if the white base of the party want another one for 4 more years.

Carly Fiorina has surged in the polls back of 2 excellent debate performances. But she is constantly hampered by her record at H-P where she was the boss from 1999 till she was fired by board in 2005. The issue of 30K people being let go at H-P during her during her tenure at H-P is like the 800 pound gorilla she can’t get off her back. According to recent Yahoo article she has even failed to get the tech crowd in Silicon Valley with the possibility of a technocrat in the White House who can help them on a myriad of issues. She has opposed net neutrality, came out against patent reform & comprehensive immigration reform, ideas dear to many in Silicon Valley. It is no wonder that she has found very little support from Valley crowd defending her record at H-P. Her most memorable line at the Reagan library debate which won her a lot of plaudits about a Planned Parenthood fetus video at the debate was later found out to be non-existent. She was grilled about this on the Sunday talk shows & I believe that this fib is going to hurt her more as this & more of what she has said gets scrutinized with her profile being more elevated now.

Ted Cruz was supposed to have been the flag bearer for the Tea Party in this election cycle. His best bet was to corner the Tea Party vote & hope that the remaining vote would be divided among the establishment Republicans driving him to the candidacy. His thunder as so many others has been completely stolen by loud mouth Donald Trump. His positions have been deemed too extreme not only by Democrats but also by establishment Republicans like shutting down government in 2013 which did rather than good to the Republican Party. He has jointly appeared with Trump in the rally against the Iran deal as he knows that his only shot right now is for Trump to win the nomination & put him on the ticket along him for vice president.

Jeb Bush is simply weighed down by the family name. There is certain fatigue to having a 3^rd Bush in the White House in the last 3 decades. He has a solid lead in raising money due to his family name & lack of any other well-known establishment candidates. The longer the campaign goes it is to his advantage that other candidates drop out due to money issues so that he coalesce the Republican establishment vote around him. But his campaign seems to be stuck in perpetual 2nd gear with his lack of being able to beat of attacks from Trump & being unable to push back at other candidates. His vacillating on some major questions many of which frankly he should have been better prepared to answer like for e.g. the obvious question of his support for Iraq war which his brother started. Despite these challenges he is still the odds on favorite to win due to the huge fund raising & establishment support advantage. Whether he can drive all of this to conclusion however remains to be seen.

Chris Christie was thought as being the bully in this race who was going to take on every one of his Republican & Democratic opponents with his no holds barred approach. This was all before Trump entered the race. Like Ted Cruz he also has been overshadowed by Trump. Thus with his USP/distinguishable point being taken away he is just another middle of the pack candidate. If he ever manages to rise in the polls his opponents will be sure to dig up “Bridgegate” case which hasn’t implicated him in any wrongdoing but refuses to die.

Mike Huckabee & Rick Santorum are still stuck in the Bush era years where they think that pandering to the evangelical vote is going to help them cruise to the candidacy.  Social issues are a much smaller issues than 10 – 15 years ago which is seen from the complete reversal in position for issues like support for gay marriage. Even this dwindling evangelical vote is going to be split amongst both of them leaving both of these guys with no hope.

John Kasich has been touting that he has a track record of being in power in both Congress & a governor in an important swing state. But with such a crowded field unless he has an amazing persona or says something ridiculous he is never going to stand out & gain any traction in the polls.

Rand Paul with his libertarian agenda including legalizing marijuana & wanting less involvement overseas militarily makes him persona non grata with half of the Republican voters making him a longshot to clinch the nomination.

Bobby Jindal, Lindsey Graham, John Gilmore & George Pataki are polling <1% which makes one wonder why they are even in the race as they border on being nonexistent. They are simply burning their supporter’s hard earned money on worthless cause. The best they can do right now is get on the secondary debate stage. No one evens looks remotely likely to be in consideration for even the vice president position.

This leaves us with the last choice which some of you might have guessed by now.

Before we go to that here let’s delve into some of the demographic numbers from past elections. The % of white vote in elections peaked at 89% in 1976 (Ford – Carter) & remained around 85% till 1992 (Bush – Clinton). However from 1996 election onwards it has declined by 3-4% every election cycle reaching a historic low of 72% in 2012. 2016 election will see it dip below 70% for the first time ever in history. This makes the Republican strategy of only pandering to white voters not the winning formula. Republicans are alienating a big portion of the expected 30% nonwhite vote with their anti-immigrant rhetoric. George Bush did manage to win 44 % of the Hispanic vote in 2004 while Mitt Romney only won 27%. This election cycle one can safely assume that longer Trump stays in the race that it will go more lower. With these expected headwinds on the non-white vote side, the Republican nominee has to win around 70% of the white vote to win the presidency. These are staggering numbers which are really hard to reach considering history. Even the Republican demi-god Ronald Raegan could only win 66% of the white vote. That’s why after the last election cycle the mantra of Republican strategists was to expand the Republican base among Hispanics & African Americans & other races. Nonwhite voters are so solidly with Democrats that the Democratic nominee would probably get away with just winning 40% of the white vote. 

Talking of party affiliation, around 45% of voters lean Republican while another 45% lean Democrat. The remaining 10% who are truly independent is where elections are lost or won. Last few elections the margin of victory is 2-4%. The true battle come November 2016 is for this 10%. So the Republican candidate can’t lean so far right to turn off this constituency which is very crucial to winning the election. He has to be neither too much to the center to alienate the Tea Party.

Coming to the last of these 15 candidates is Marco Rubio bests fits with the above criteria to win. He is neither as extreme as some of the Tea party backed candidates like Ted Cruz or Donald Trump while definitely not being a moderate establishment Republican like Jeb Bush. He can walk this fine line leading him to appeal to both sides of the Republican Party.  His Hispanic roots can appeal to the Hispanic voter base to vote for him. I am not saying that he needs to advocate amnesty for illegal immigrants but if he can put forward some sort of immigration policy that Hispanics & other immigrant communities can be ok with he will make huge inroads into this vote bank. He was after all a member of the “Gang of Eight” senators who tried unsuccessfully to reform immigration in 2013. George Bush fought with members in Congress & Senate unsuccessfully trying to reform the immigration policy. It didn’t help him win many plaudits from the right but it certainly helped him win two elections. His biggest challenge will however be fighting a compatriot from his own state of Florida: Jeb Bush. Since he is up for reelection in 2016 in the Senate he is by default giving up his Senate seat. He might be very well fighting for his political survival as if he loses he might be pushed into political wilderness. Just ask John Edwards who no one remembers today but he essentially gave up his senate seat to be the ticket as the vice presidential candidate. His relative young age of 44 can help him appeal to the youth voters who are mostly with the Democrats. Assuming Hillary is the most likely Democratic candidate a dream Republican ticket would be Rubio & Carly. This would help them check off all the boxes that a Republican needs to be successful in the general election: appeal to Hispanics, young voters & women (with Carly acting as a counterweight against Hillary). This might not help them score wins over the Democrats these categories but chip away enough votes in these categories to neutralize the Democrats solid advantage in these categories.

Looking at the betting odds Jeb Bush would seem the presumptive Republican nominee right now. However polling wise top 3 candidates are non-establishment candidates: Trump, Carly & Carson who I believe will slowly fade out over time leaving the door open for others. Rubio is very close behind them in the polls for now quietly lurking to surge forward when others fall to the wayside. Don’t discount also the extreme possibility of no one getting enough votes heading into the Republican convention to clinch the nomination thus setting up the stage for a brokered convention. That could work to Rubio’s advantage as he could easily appeal to both sides of the party as a compromise candidate whom they could get behind. He doesn’t get the publicity like other candidates but to be fair most of the oxygen in terms of media coverage is being sucked up by Trump. To conclude I strongly believe now that Rubio would be the winner of the Republican nomination & also the best bet for Republicans come November 2016.

R.I.P. My Brother Shalin

It is often said that the best among men are needed more, up there in heaven than down here on earth. I did not fully comprehend how true this statement was until this past weekend. This is a cruel reminder from nature that the only immortals are the gods themselves & we as humans are mere mortals who simply can’t defeat Father Time. There can be no justice or solace in the fact that such a precious soul has been taken away from our midst far too soon. But I guess his legacy on earth was not to live peacefully into his golden years which I can safely assume he himself would have called “boring”, but to be a shining beacon that will inspire millions of others to never give up hope & always be positive.

Winston Churchill once remarked that “pessimists see difficultly in every opportunity while optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty”. Shalin took that saying to heart, turned the tables on Cancer, saw it as an opportunity to be thankful of what he was able to do in his short life. He simultaneously was able to inspire millions of others with his message of fighting on when the odds are heavily stacked against you & showcased the importance of cherishing the small things in life we take for granted.

As we all know that sunsets are very dear to Shalin & I believe that he went to heaven with impeccable timing 30 min before sunset so that he could view a sunset far more glorious than what any one of us could possibly see down here on earth.

Shalin really lived upto what he told us: i.e. that what truly matters is not how long we live, but what we do with the time that has been allocated to us. Shalin as we all know was always spreading joy to everyone around him, beginning from the folically challenged infant with the cutest smile to the strapping young man who was glowing at his wedding recently.

He always was extremely positive throughout his painful ordeal over the past 9 months. He very quickly accepted what cards God had dealt him, accepting his fate with extreme maturity while not once complaining “why did it have to be me?”

He was never after the flashy materialistic things that a lot of people crave constantly. Sorry Shalin but I did give you a lot of grief about your blue flip phone which you didn’t part with until everyone I know was already using smartphones.

Not only was Shalin highly intelligent but also very well informed on every topic known to man. I was fortunate to have some fascinating discussions with him on a wide variety of topics. Though mind you, these discussions were always at a risk of ending up with one of Shalin’ s trademark out of the box/left field random questions which not only left one puzzled but sometimes got me thinking that “Man someone really needs to see what neurons are firing in this guy’s brain that makes him ask these random questions”.

Like Niyati had mentioned at his wedding that she wanted Kahaan to be like Shalin when he grew up in not only speaks volume about Shalin as a man but also is a testament to his excellent upbringing by Bharatifoi & Sanjeevfua. Shalin was extremely blessed to have perfect partner in you Frances who never once left Shalin’s side & were his rock of support even in direst of circumstances.

To conclude I would like to recite a passage from Dylan Thomas’s poem which was made famous recently by a movie that both Shalin & I loved: Interstellar. The poem beautifully encapsulates Shalin’s life over these past few months. The poem means essentially not to surrender, do not give up, live, fight against the end, against the coming change - do not pass out of the light with a whimper, but as time comes near live big.

Do not go gentle into that good night,
Old age should burn and rave at close of day;
Rage, rage against the dying of the light.

Though wise men at their end know dark is right,
Because their words had forked no lightning they
Do not go gentle into that good night.

Why Delhi is a "good loss" for BJP

AAP has truly risen like a phoenix from the ashes of its debacle in the 2014 general election It quickly realized it’s folly of trying to contest elections all over India by staying out of the Haryana state elections & instead trying to focus all its limited manpower & energy rather on just Delhi. Delhi was always it’s stronghold due to its strong presence there with its 49 day government & it’s andolan against corruption since 2011. Kejriwal apologized for his quitting & people of Delhi have given him a second chance which he must not waste. Now Mr. Kejriwal has to deliver good governance to the people of Delhi which means spending more time in the Secretariat rather than the footpath beside Jantar Mantar. They have delivered one of the biggest landslides in multi-party Indian election history. The closest other landslide that I can think of is the Congress Lok Sabha victory in 1984 where they won over 400 seats. Granted many people don’t agree with many of AAP’s left wing populist policies & their agitation style democracy what we need to take heart in & be proud is of the fact that however corrupt & dysfunctional our democracy might be there is a smooth transfer of power in the democracy in our country. One has to simply look at our neighbors or several other 3^rd world countries in Asia & Africa to see how difficult it is to truly achieve this. Neither do we want to have a single party rule like our northern neighbors where there is one party rule & all dissent is crushed. One party rule tends to breed more corruption, nepotism & stagnation. In a way it is good for neither BJP or for that matter Congress to rule each & every state in India to have diversity in ideas & thoughts through healthy debate where the will of the electorate matters.

Coming to the BJP which is the surely to be biggest loser in this election, (I am not considering Congress for simply they seem to be non-relevant) this victory surely would have set the alarm bells ringing in the BJP. Just a few months ago they were victorious in the 4 consecutive state assembly elections since the 2014 general election & looked to be on an unstoppable roll. We have heard all kinds of doomsday predictions such as the start of the fall of BJP to the end of honeymoon period for Modi. This however I believe is a “good loss” for the BJP due to the following reasons that I shall outline below

1.      Lack of overconfidence heading into the strategically crucial polls of Bihar & UP. Another so called easy win could have brought about an aura of invincibility around the Modi –Shah axis. BJP cadre would have taken for granted that winning in these 2 states over next couple of years is a done deal where they simply have to put up a candidate, do some campaigning & Amit Shah with his Midas touch will take them over the finish line. The severe margin of defeat in Delhi will remove all complacency from BJP & give it a good jolt making them realize that these future elections are not going to be cakewalks. It will give them an opportunity to rethink their strategy & plans on these upcoming elections.

2.      BJP with all its recent success has had a rude awakening to a simple fact in multi cornered fights that are a staple of Indian elections. When opposition coalesces either due to absolute collapse of one party (Congress in Delhi) or due to various parties joining hands the going gets tough as their advantage quickly evaporates. This is exactly what the merged Janta Parivar is trying to achieve where once rivals Mulayam, Lalu & Nitish are trying to combine their individual spent forces into one united front with the sole aim of defeating BJP to save their regional fiefdoms. The bigger lesson for BJP from Delhi might be not importing any more leaders from outside like they did with Kiran Bedi. Amit Shah the shrewdest tactician on the block nowadays should know very well from the Bedi experiment in Delhi that he should not let JD(U) rebel Jita Ram Manjhi enter BJP. This might alieantate the BJP base rather than helping them out. A more tactful move would be to let him form his own party, split the existing JD (U) vote & benefit immensely from a tri-party contest.

3.      BJP’s rise to power has also brought to the forefront the radical voices in the BJP who have outspoken on controversial topics that most of the electorate doesn’t cre about anymore. It has given free ammunition to the opposition to target BJP & scare the voters who Modi had brought over to his fold last year on plank of development & prosperity. Modi has to rein in all these fringe radical elements before they break the broad coalition that Modi worked tirelessly last year to being to his side to win the election. Or otherwise it could very well be that BJP’s boat is sunk by more self-inflicted damage than any credible opposition.

4.      With the budget around the corner the growth agenda has to be put again put on a fast track. Many of the controversial reforms have been put on backburner due to the radical changes it will bring about. Modi has to start delivering on the loads of promises he made as people unlike earlier times have become more aspirational & will become more restless as time goes on. Modi can’t simply keep talking about change forever without delivering something substantial to show for. Voters showed in the last general election that unless the government gives the change they voted for, they will be equally quick in getting rid of the current government & there is no elongated honeymoon period anymore.

Modi knows that even though he enjoys comfortable majority in Lok Sabha he can’t pass any major reform without any kind of majority in the Rajya Sabha. Rajya Sabha members are elected by state assemblies. So currently government has to pass all reforms by way of ordinances which is neither ideal nor suitable in the long run. So the real power lies if one can capture the major assemblies to pack the Rajya Sabha with as many of your members as possible. This is where Bihar & UP come in. Winning these means he can nominate quite a few Rajya Sabha members; control both houses of Parliament & be in control of his reform & development agenda. He knows that without delivering the changes he promised there is no way he gets reelected in 2019. Get majority in Rajya Sabha is essential so that without relying on Opposition he can pass bills in Rajya Sabha. Sensing this opposition is trying to create as much ruckus currently as they fear losing control in Rajya Sabha in a couple of years. They fear that they will be merely a sideshow to any decision that the Modi government might take during last few years of its term. A loss in Delhi will hurt in short term, a possible loss of face due to high profile status of it being the capital of the nation. But Modi in the long term would rather lose Delhi & win the grand prizes of Bihar & UP. This loss should help rather than hurt BJP in its goals over r the next few years. There are no “good losses” in any walk of life but this might be the closest to a “good loss” that they ever could have had.

Analysis on the 2014 Lok Sabha Election results

Let me start by saying that only Chanakya got the election results spot on, who many people including yours truly thought were predicting a way over optimistic seat tally for BJP & its allies. Everyone felt that BJP was going to be the single largest party & the combined NDA seat tally would be hovering somewhere close to the 272 half way mark. But very few expected such a huge landslide for the BJP & NDA, including a majority in parliament for BJP just by itself. Almost all full time psephologists & also a part timer like me got it wrong with our predictions. I believe healthy dose skepticism prevailed after the overestimation of seat count for BJP/NDA in exit polls for the previous 2 general elections (in 2004 & 2009) which contributed to an underestimation this time around.

Before I got into my analysis here is a fascinating summary for the two main national parties from past 2 elections.

2009 BJP vote share (19%) Seats 116, Congress vote share (29%) Seats 206

2014 BJP vote share (31%) Seats 282, Congress vote share (19%) Seats 44

This might be the most head scratching piece of information from this election. How does one party win 116 seats with 19% vote share & while another wins only 44. Also one party wins 206 seats with 29% vote share while another one with just an extra 2% gets a majority on its own. One might quickly dismiss these facts as quirky due to the fact that Congress derives its vote share from all states while BJP is mostly concentrated in north, central & west India.  Furthermore with 38.5% of vote NDA at 336 seats & BJP with 31% of vote with 282 seats is the smallest vote share a majority government has gotten in history of India. This numbers has lead BJP & Modi detractors to doubts the existence of a Modi wave in this election throwing out statements saying “that 6 out of every 10 people in India didn’t vote for BJP or its ally”. But I believe this is an over simplification of the Indian electoral system. There was an existence of a Modi wave which I will explain over the course of my blog.

The main factors for the BJP landslide in addition to the no brainer 12% rise in BJP vote share are the 1) First past the post electoral (FPP) system & 2) Regional coalition partners 3) Campaign style & voter mindset

FPP & coalition partners are kind of inter twined & I will go into the detail about the first past the post electoral system later on but first on coalition partners. In addition to the existing coalition partners from previous election campaigns, Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) in Punjab & Shiv Sena in Maharashtra, BJP & Modi stitched up new coalition partners in several states including TDP (Chandrababu Naidu) in Andhra Pradesh, LJP (Ram Vilas Paswan), Upendra Kushwaha’s RLSP & Apna Dal in Uttar Pradesh. BJP even opened its account in Tamil Nadu by forging an alliance with a combination of 3 small Dravidian regional parties.  In contrast Congress lost few of its alliance partners from UPA-II & didn’t have any allies in many states especially in South India. DMK broke its alliance with Congress which decimated the Congress in Tamil Nadu. They couldn’t even forge an alliance with TRS who would seem a natural partner in Telangana especially after spending so much political capital on simply forming a new state to retain a few seats in Telangana.

The first past the post (FPP) electoral system is where the candidate with simply the most votes wins his constituency no matter what his vote share is. Many other countries use a proportional system where the seats are assigned per state/region/province based on vote share across entire geographical area versus a localized constituency. In first past the post (FPP) system if there is a four cornered fight one could theoretically win by just getting 25.01% of the vote share in each constituency while in proportional fare system one would just get over 25% of seats in the entire region . One can debate all day long the pros & cons of the first past the post versus proportional representation system which might benefit some versus other parties. Many people that have railed against this system that has provided BJP with the high seat share for the vote share that they have gotten have conveniently forgotten that this is the exact system that Congress benefited from for several elections since independence. Next I am going to break down the states in 2 distinct categories: 1) Bipolar Head to head contests 2) Multi party contests.

In states where there is a straight contest between 2 major parties & the vote share difference between both parties starts creeping into the double digit percentage range, you start getting landslide victories for majority party. Gujarat (20%) Rajasthan (17%) MP (19%) saw either complete sweeps or near sweeps for BJP. Likewise is the case for other states such as Uttarakhand, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Goa etc. where BJP by simply picking up the vote share lost by Congress, won nearly all the seats in these states.

In multi cornered fight states a much smaller vote % difference leads to dramatic landslides as the vote gets split amongst various parties. In this type of states where BJP either doesn’t have a big presence or is looking to increase its seat tally, by getting the right alliances BJP scored big. In AP the difference in vote share between Naidu’s TDP & Jagmohan Reddy’s YSRC is less than a percentage point. But when you add the 8% BJP provided TDP in a multi cornered contest with Congress & TRS you get a majority of seats going to TDP/BJP combine versus YSRC. Ditto is the case for UP & Bihar but with a different angle. For long BJP had been described as a party of upper caste Brahmins & baniyas. Over the years BJP has always struggled to gain support of lower caste voters who have instead coalesced with the many regional leaders in these states. OBC’s make up 54% & 39% of the population in Bihar & UP respectively. With negligible support from minorities , for BJP to do well in these states the electoral dynamics dictate they get support from a broad range of Hindus not just the upper castes. Many opposition figures & liberals have blamed solely the Muzzafarnagar riots & post polarization as the main reason that BJP did so well in UP this time around. This is another one of the classic over simplification myths of this election. Modi no doubt with his clean image & plank of development during the campaign trail pulled several voters towards BJP but he also pulled out the caste card (referring himself to as an OBC) during a few rallies in UP hoping to connect in the heavily caste dominated constituencies of UP. His master strategist Amit Shah also offered 25-27 tickets to OBC’s in UP which incidentally was more than Mayawati, a self-proclaimed champion of backwards castes. BJP formed an alliance with the Apna Dal, a party of Kurmis, a backward caste luring in more OBC voters. Mayawati towards the end of her campaign felt the backward caste vote slipping from her & started to attack Modi vigorously, even asking Modi to prove his OBC credentials. All these above factors contributed to an astounding vote share of 42% & factoring in a 20% difference to the next biggest vote share in a 4 way contest, BJP swept UP. The only 7/80 seats that they lost were pocket boroughs of either Congress (Rahul Gandhi & Sonia Gandhi) & Samajwadi Party (Mulayam (2 seats), Mulayam’s 2 nephews & daughter in law). A hypothetical tie of up of any 2 of the 3 in UP between Congress, Mayawati & Mulayam might have checked BJP to a large extent. In Bihar BJP aligned with 2 backward caste leaders Ram Vilas Paswan’s LJP & the Upendra Kushwaha’s RLSP  (even I hadn’t heard of him before this election) to strengthen their pull among the OBC & EBC’s in Bihar. This successfully neutralized the Congress-Lalu axis. Most surprising factor has been the complete decimation of Nitish Kumar in this election. Congress & RJD combined got 1 percent less vote share than BJP itself. Bringing in the extra 9% from LJP & RLSP helped BJP alliance come out on top in 31/40 seats. Looking at the past several Lok Sabha elections Ram Vilas Paswan always ends up on the winning side. Maybe he is the true “bellweather” of Bihar politics. The joke floating around now a days is that to predict Bihar just look at whose side Paswan is on. Thus BJP in addition to picking up the majority  of the votes that Congress lost in these states , plus a little from regional parties in addition to smart regional tie ups did very well also in mulit cornered contests.

AAP was considered the X factor for this election. AAP looked like harming the BJP’s chances back in December when the Delhi assembly election results were declared. Back then they had a lot of momentum in terms of enthusiasm & party enrollment. Kejriwal initially targeted the Congress before December but later on thinking that Congress was a spent force in this election turned his attention solely on BJP. Kejriwal’s regular rants many of them lunatic in nature made many urban middle class voters rethink about supporting AAP. He self-destructed as the campaign wore on while Modi grew in strength. In addition to their declining support day by day they spread their resources too thin across the country as they contested in more constituencies than either BJP or Congress. It is no surprise that they lost deposits in 413 of 432 seats they contested. In spate of few months AAP went from a serous potential challenger to BJP to anti-BJP vote spoiler. There was no dearth of options against BJP to start with & AAP further fragmented the anti-BJP vote which in multi part contest always helps out the party with the biggest vote share.

Third point is the campaign style & mindset of the voter. Congress never had clear vision on how to project itself or how to counteract Modi. It was always on defensive from beginning. They seriously bungled its regional alliance tie ups. Call it sheer stupidity or arrogance of the Congress high command who thought that they could do well without any major partners in many states including none in south India. They almost began the election campaign with a defeatist attitude as if they had given up knowing they were going to lose. They firmly believed that NDA would be checked by regional parties & AAP ,falling short of majority & unable to partners post-election to form the next government. Hence Congress will support a Third Front government from the outside for few years till they recover from the mess of UPA-II & collapse the Third Front government when they are strong again. By the time they woke up to reality they were so far behind & resorted to personal attacks on Modi which he is a master of deflecting to his own advantage like he has done in previous Gujarat elections. Anyone remember “Maut ka saudagar”? Congress was busier blasting the “Gujarat model” instead of positively projecting their government’s achievements. Congress neither could successfully highlight its welfare programs that it enacted over last 10 years nor shake off the tag of corruption associated with its government. Not only Congress but also several regional parties focused on attacking Modi for 2002 riots & spreading fear among minorities. But today’s electorate is different from what it used to be in the past. With India’s median age around 25 years & 2/3 of population under the age of 35, political parties need to calibrate their message towards the youth of this nation. Shekhar Gupta from Indian Express rightly pointed out that for today’s youth this is not the Congress party of their fathers & grandfathers with whom they have a sense of loyalty to vote for as their forefathers once did. The economic reforms that Manmohan Singh implemented in 1991 uplifted millions of families out of poverty over last 20+ years, but today’s youth are not satisfied with those gains & have become more aspirational. Manmohan might have been blamed for the state Congress is in today by actions of his over past 5 years as PM, but I believe he unleashed a “sleeping giant” 20 years ago that the Congress party is facing the anger of today. The youth see price rise, economic stagnation, lack of job growth & corruption all as obstacles to their upward mobility & worry to a lesser extent about caste & religion.  Today the world is much more connected & they see development & growth in other places which they can compare against. In the past political parties in lesser developed areas might get away with fooling people as they had no idea of the development in other parts of the country. The 10% increase in overall voter turnout was borne partly out of frustration at way the things are today. Modi from day one of the campaign has focused his entire poll pitch on positive points i.e. growth & development agenda. Modi has successfully appealed to their aspirations & decisively won them over in this election. Congress is still stuck in the mentality of welfare & dole outs. Today’s youth is not asking how much free stuff they can get but what have you done for me lately to improve my life & how can the overall standard of his living be improved. With rising literacy levels & increasing youth population this problem is going to become more pronounced in every successive election for parties stuck in this old mindset.

With Modi’s development politics, religious, caste & minority appeasement politics though not eliminated completely has been marginalized to a large extent. In addition this has proven that the negative style of campaign doesn’t resonate anymore with today’s voter (personal attacks & fear mongering). There has to be some serious soul searching for various regional satarps like Mulayam, Mayawati, Lalu Prasad etc. on the path forward for them. Unless they change their mindset & focus on good governance versus vote bank politics they face becoming non relevant in the near future. Modi surely has given them several sleepless nights but several of them still appear in denial mode judging from the post poll statements coming from them. Many of them might start doing the unthinkable & forming alliances with sworn enemies just to keep BJP at bay. I hoped that they wouldn’t put their head in the sand & take this easy way out. But unfortunately Nitish Kumar instead of continuing his good governance has overreacted & joined hands with his onetime arch enemy Lalu against whose misrule he railed against 9 years ago. Congress also ran a rudderless campaign with no idea on how to reach out to the electorate. Sonia Gandhi prefers to stay in background & Rahul Gandhi is always reluctant to lead by example, be it being a minister in UPA, debating in parliament or being announced as a PM candidate. Congress being decimated to less than half of their worst ever tally should make Congress introspect hard at the decisions they took in UPA-II & in election campaign. There already has been lot of finger pointing since the results were declared & almost everyone is totally dissatisfied with Rahul Gandhi and/or his advisors. This truly has been a transcendent election where after 30 years in Indian politics a single party has enough seats to form government on its own.  Modi was the man of the match of this election as he single handedly carried the BJP from the doldrums for the past 10 years to victory. Rajnath Singh can’t get enough credit when 8 months ago he stood up to the senior leaders in BJP like LK Advani, Sushma Swaraj & Murli Manohar Joshi to make Modi the PM candidate despite their stiff opposition. Many Modi & BJP detractors including opposition leaders will quibble about the 31% national vote share showing a Modi wave but the sweep in majority of states across the country does show that there was indeed a Modi wave. I will further use two more statistics to strengthen the theory of Modi wave. Chattisgardh, where elections are won & lost by razor thin margin of 1% vote share difference, BJP had a 10% vote share difference. In Maharashtra BJP had 27% vote share versus 20% for Shiv Sena. I can’t imagine without a true Modi wave BJP getting more votes than Shiv Sena in Maharashtra. It would be foolish for such people to look at a high national vote share corresponding to a Modi wave as that seems pretty impossible in a country as big & diverse as India for any party to get. Modi has with his persona & shrewd alliances have maximizing the BJP’s seat count in multiple states is itself an amazing achievement. This ensures a stable government for next 5 years not dependent of whims of few coalition partners. This thumping majority will give him a free hand to reform & grow the India economy. If he delivers on his promises he could usher in a golden age for India. This also will brighten the prospects of BJP in several upcoming elections for which he has shrewdly kept Amit Shah out of the central cabinet.

2014 Lok Sabha election prediction & post poll alliances

So we have reached the end of nothing short of a marathon election process: 9 phases over 5 weeks where 55 crore out of a possible 81 crore voted. Everyone across not only India but also the world is waiting with baited breath as to who will form the next government of the world’s biggest democracy

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A slew of polls from the various media houses have been throwing various numbers at us over the past couple of days with almost all of them giving NDA a clear majority. But I believe NDA by itself will be practically at the door step but not over the halfway mark. I will explain my theory on NDA not crossing 272 mark later in the blog. The “last mile” problem that I talked about in my previous blog has become much easier with the surge in support for NDA/BJP over the past 2 months when they were expected to get anywhere in the 200-225 range. I believe the “critical mass” number for NDA is 250. If they get over it finding allies is going to be easy as smaller parties & independents always quickly coalesce around the majority coalition to give it the sufficient numbers to form the next government. But keep in mind that Modi just doesn’t want to simply get to 272+. He would want to be well over 300+ to give stability to his government. He understands that having a slim majority is invitation to blackmail from any of his allies to pull the rug from under him on the pretext of opposing any slightly controversial development or reform policy issue that he might want to implement. With his pro development plank during this election campaign there will be several tough policy decisions that need to be taken over the next 5 years. Rather be on tenterhooks for his entire term he would want to get what I call “blackmail proof” majority where multiple allies would have to withdraw support to collapse the government.

That’s brought us to the obvious question of how to get there. In my previous blog I had put forth the “Teen Deviyan” formula for Modi to become PM: Mamta, Mayawati  & Jaylalitha. I go over them again in order of least likely to most likely.

 Mamta is dealing with issues of bad governance in her state since she became CM in 2011 plus some level of anti-incumbency & dissatisfaction among the Bengali electorate. With the Left pretty much a spent force in West Bengal & BJP rising nationally including in her state she perceives the BJP to be her main rival in this election. BJP sensing an opportunity to make inroads in WB for the first time ever had Modi hold election rallies in WB which was virtually unheard of in past campaigns. Thus Mamta has come out swinging hard against Modi & been relentless & acerbic in her attacks for the past few weeks which rules her out as a post-election partner most probably.

Mayawati has also come out strong against Modi recently. It was interesting that she was pretty much “silent” against BJP in the beginning of the campaign. But as the campaign wore on BJP was gaining ground in UP including among lower caste & Dalit’s. This erosion of her core support set the alarm bells ringing in BSP. She suddenly started vigorously criticizing Modi & BJP in middle of campaign. She had hoped for consolidating the Muslim vote towards BS P that was not happy with both Samajwadi Party (SP) due to Muzzafarnagar & apathy towards Muslims in general in spite of fielding several Muslim candidates. Thus she had to come out openly ruling out any post poll alliance with BJP trying to woo more secular voters to her side.

That leaves Jaylalitha who from beginning I mentioned is the most “natural ally” for Modi. She has enjoyed the most cordial relations with Modi in the past of all regional party leaders. She & her party AIADMK have been the least vocal about opposing BJP/Modi. Her 25 to 30 MP’s can help Modi secure the 300+ majority he desires.

There are 2 more leaders to add as possible partners: BJD from Orissa & YSRC from Seemandhra. BJD recently has stated the possibility of supporting the NDA government from outside. Jagmohan Reddy of Seemadhra has openly mentioned that he will support anyone at Centre as he needs all the help he needs for development of the bifurcated state Seemandhra. One can put the same logic for TRS (Telangana Rashtra Samiti) for Telengana. But due to their closeness to Congress it might be far-fetched possibility right now.

So instead of the Teen Deviyan, the new formula for Modi is the “Southern formula”.

Now on to the exciting part, the actual predictions. I stated earlier that NDA will probably not cross 272. Here are my reasons.

Most exit polls have been giving the BJP lead NDA coalition a clear majority at 272+. One prediction from Chanakya is even giving the NDA 340 seats. This big of a number for NDA me sounds farfetched to me especially with the small sample size of just under 39K. My biggest gripe with all these polls is the sample size versus the sheer size & diversity of the Indian electorate. I found most of these polls have very small sample sizes of under 50K & +/-3-4% error rate which is pretty big in psephology (scientific analysis elections).

As seen in 2004 & 2009 these exit polls were way of the mark. Some people have theorized this due to oversampling of the urban electorate which is usually pro BJP. I am not sure how many of these polls are done in swing rural bellwether & swing constituencies.

Most people attribute BJP & Modi’s recent outburst against the election commission for not allowing him to hold an election in Varanasi plus the selfie that he took in Gandhinagar after he voted. Very few people know that actually it was just the final set of issues in the buildup of a long running dispute & grievances that BJP had with the Election Commission that culminated in an outburst last week. BJP had been complaining to EC about the booth capturing by SP in the April 24 & April 30^th phases which may easily lead to the loss of several seats in UP. There have been similar complaints in Bihar & West Bengal. Doing weIl in Bihar & UP is quintessential to BJP’s overall national game. If they were really confident of doing well in these states on back of a “Modi tsunami”, crossing 272 would not be an issue & they would not make a fuss about the strong arm tactics by SP which keep in mind occur frequently in Indian elections. Another point is that in the Indian heartland the “official state machinery” is used to bias the election towards the incumbent party which I don’t believe the opinion polls also take into account.

Based on my analysis & number crunching I predict the following ranges for NDA, UPA & Others. NDA: 257-260, UPA: 112-116 & Others: 169-173.

Neither am I am anti Modi nor do I want to dampen any NDA supporter with this prediction. Modi has orchestrated this election campaign very well like a presidential campaign where he has appealed to the voter to vote for him rather than the local NDA candidate. He has had a significant hand in reviving the fortunes of the BJP to become relevant at the national level after a decade of infighting & borderline irrelevance. Everyone agrees that BJP will be the singles largest party & NDA the biggest coalition but I don’t agree with the margin in most these polls. But looking at this objectively from an NDA perspective a number around 258 is above the 250 “critical mass” I talked about earlier which should get them over the hump & stich together a coalition government. Thus on basis of this prediction I project Narendra Modi as the 14^th Prime Minister of India. 

“TEEN DEVIYAN"

On 17th April 1999 after orchestrating the fall of the Vajpayee led NDA government, Subramanian Swamy, a man who is never short for words proudly proclaimed to the media that the credit for the fall of Vajpayee’s government has to go to three ladies : Sonia Gandhi, J Jaylalitha & Mayawati, describing them as “teen deviyan” : Lakshmi, Saraswati and Durga respectively.

Fast forward to the present day & the upcoming 2014 national elections, I believe the key to next formation of government is in the hands of a slightly altered set of “teen deviyan” which I will explain further in this article.

Today by all accounts due to the very high level of dissatisfaction with the current UPA government due to multiple issues like price rise, corruption, stagnation of economic growth & not to forget two term incumbency, the current UPA government & particularly the Congress party is heading for a severe & probably historic drubbing at the polls in May. So all eyes not only inside but also outside India are looking towards the BJP led NDA coalition to possibly form the next government. BJP under the leadership of their prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi looks to be in a good shape heading towards the election, but the overall NDA alliance is the worrying point for them. NDA today is a shell of its former self in the Vajpayee days when it had multiple coalition partners.  NDA today is basically a BJP + 2: Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) & Shiv Sena (SS) & lacks any other substantial allies.Recent addition of Ram Vilas Paswan's LJP might help them with few more seats in Bihar but that is not the kind of sizeable addtition that NDA is looking for currently. The general opinion among the various pollsters is that NDA will win around 200 – 225 seats leaving it short by around 50 to 75 seats from majority. But NDA in its current form will struggle mightily to get anywhere near the half way mark of 272.

The biggest challenge for Modi & BJP will be to find politicians willing to support them either before or after the election. Not many leaders want to be associated with Modi in any way, shape or form let alone seen supporting his government at the national level. With Nitish Kumar making enough noise about Modi’s secular credentials, a rapprochement between his JD(U) & BJP seems nonexistent right now. One can safely rule out Mulayam Singh’s Samajwadi Party (SP) given his track record of heavy minority appeasement. Lalu Yadav’s Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) has always been a fierce critic of Modi & is also in the same category as Mulayam. Safely excluding the Left parties from teaming up with BJP, this leaves Modi with very few possible coalition partners. Biju Patnaik BJD is neither committing openly to joining the Third Front nor joining NDA. That leaves very few options for NDA to cobble the necessary support to cross the halfway mark..

 This brings me back to the discussion about our “teen deviyan”. Almost 15 years have passed since Swamy’s comment which is like a century in today’s ever changing coalition politics of India. So it is but natural that some of the “deviyans” in our story has to change.

J Jaylalitha for most of last year appeared like a good coalition partner for BJP as Modi & her seemed to have a good rapport but recently the distance between the two parties has widened. Now she does not want to not openly commit to supporting BJP just in case BJP falters badly before the general elections. This leaves her with leverage to become PM in case she is one the biggest partner in a hypothetical Third Front government.

Second is Mayawati who in past has partnered with BJP on more than one occasion to form coalition governments in Uttar Pradesh. Unlike Mulayam she might be open to joining NDA coalition or supporting the government from the outside. Being in power at Central level will help her neutralize & keep in check Mulayam & Akhilesh SP’s government in UP.

Third & the new entrant to the list is Mamta Banerjee. She was a part of the earlier NDA government where Mamta was the railway minister. She has been prone to change sides very easily & has been part of both NDA & UPA governments. At present time like many other regional satarps she has been very vocal about Modi. But given her track record it won’t be far-fetched for her to use her big contingent of MP's to support BJP while extracting her pound of flesh from BJP in return to get important ministries & a good economic package for West Bengal.

The Third Front coalition seems to be collapsing a little bit with both AIADMK & BJD both refusing to support it openly. This might gravitate both Jaylalitha & Biju Patnaik back to NDA fold. Also opinion polls predict around 20 seats for the parties of the above “deviyan”. It might take two or  possibly just even one of them (plus possibly Biju Patnaik's BJD) to help NDA to go past or very close to the magic number of 272. With Mamta being a long shot for now to support Modi if NDA does well; it might come down to Modi being able to woo the other two: Mayawati or Mamta.

After all these years Swamy’s comments from 1999 still hold resonance in a very different way in 2014. In a bizarre twist of irony Swamy who is no stranger to changing sides every few years joined the BJP formally a few months ago. Swamy who brought down the BJP government 15 years ago with this “teen deviyan” formula might just have the right formula for Modi to ascend to the PM’s chair in 2014.