On August 28th,
2017 after more than 10 weeks of high tension, the border standoff between PLA
[People’s Liberation Army] i.e. Chinese Army & the Indian Army was over.
Indian soldiers disengaged from their confrontation with Chinese troops in a
remote place on the Dolam Plateau [commonly referred to incorrectly as the
Doklam Plateau in Indian media] in Bhutan just over the India/Bhutan border. This standoff was not only a major talking
point in the Indian media but also received quite bit of coverage in multiple
news organizations around the world such as NY Times, BBC News, Washington
Post, Time, Fortune, Al Jazeera, etc.
One might
have several questions in regard to this story which I shall answer over the
course of this blog
- First of all where in the world is this now infamous Dolam Plateau?
- If this is a dispute about Bhutan’s territory why aren’t Chinese troops being opposed by Bhutanese troop’s vs Indian troops?
- If this place is in Bhutan’s territory what are Chinese & Indian troops doing over there?
- If India’s territorial sovereignty is not being infringed upon why does India care & have to intervene in Bhutan?
The area in question (Dolam Plateau) is at the tri-junction area where borders of India (state of Sikkim), Bhutan & Tibet (controlled by China) meet.
The area of Tibet which extends to this tri-junction area is referred to as Chumbi Valley which points like a "dagger" southwards in between India & Bhutan.
TRI-JUNCTION AREA(ZOOMED IN VIEW)
TRI-JUNCTION AREA(ZOOMED IN VIEW)
As per the
understanding between India & Bhutan the point where borders of all three
countries is called Batang La. However China claims that the tri-junction (i.e. point where borders of the three countries meet) lies around 6.5km to the south at Gymochen or Gamochen & hence lays claim to the entire Dolam Plateau. In between both these points approximately 4km south of Batang La lies the Doka La where India stations it's troops on it's side of the border at an outpost.
Image: Courtesy of https://swarajyamag.com/defence/truths-mapped-out-india-cannot-afford-to-have-china-controlling-doklam-plateau
China since it claims the territory in south till Gymochen/Gamochen, over past several years has been building roads in Tibet not only to the actual border to Bhutan but also inside Bhutan itself. It built a motorable road around 2005 time frame (capable of supporting big military vehicles) extending from the disputed border right up to the Doka La Pass. This was the status quo until June 15, 2017
Image: Courtesy of nytimes.com
On June 16th 2017 as per reports Chinese troops were going to start extension of this motorable road to the south towards their claimed border towards the south. This is when Indian Army soldiers at the Doka La outpost crossed over the international border with Bhutan & blocked them from proceeding with the construction. This created many firsts including the Indian Army crossing over into a 3rd country to confront Chinese troops.
Image: Courtesy of nytimes.com
This leads to an obvious question that why did India have to intervene on behalf of Bhutan when Bhutan's & not's India's territorial sovereignty was infringed upon. One must remember that Bhutan is a very tiny country sandwiched between two giants of Asia: India & China. Due to fears of being invaded by China, Bhutan signed a friendship treaty with India in 1949 (to avoid a fate like Tibet which was annexed by China around same time). One of the main principles of the treaty was "Bhutan agrees to to be guided by advice of India in regards to external relations". This meant that Bhutan had to compulsorily consult India on all aspects with regard to foreign relations (including with China). Bhutan is the only neighbor of China which doesn't have diplomatic relations with China. This treaty was later revised in 2007 to more looser terms saying that India & Bhutan to consult with one another on issues of national interest & not allow each other territories to be used in activities that are harmful to national security & interest of another. It is this exact wording in the India - Bhutan treaty which allows India the right to act on Bhutan's behalf for protecting not only Bhutan's but also India's own interest (more on that a bit later). Bhutan is very small nation which doesn't have a powerful army. They don't patrol the Dolam plateau regularly as it is both uninhabitable for most of year & it is of no strategic importance to them. Hence India had to take proactive action, crossing the international border & physically denying the Chinese from making any progress further south.
Next question is why would India be worried if China is intruding into a 3rd country. (Bhutan). There are 3 answer to this question : TERRAIN, TERRAIN & TERRAIN. In mountain warfare one the biggest advantage one can have over the enemy is being at a higher terrain than your enemy. This not only allows you to monitor enemy movements but makes it much harder for the enemy to dislodge you from that position. The attacker has to climb up high plus fight the defender at the same time . If the defender is in a well entrenched position he can easily inflict high casualties on the attacker. The 1999 war in Kargil & Operation Meghdoot to capture the Siachen glacier in 1984 are examples of this. Normally as per military doctrine an attacker needs a 3:1 force ratio to defeat while attacking & defeating an enemy. To mount a successful capture of a high position held by an enemy that ratio could easily surpass 10:1 i.e. attacker would have to throw a huge amount of overwhelming manpower to achieve their objective.
Dolam Plateau (at 13,000 to 14,00 feet above sea level) is a relatively flat area surrounded by deep valleys & sharp peaks around it. These big peaks & deep valleys mean that navigating around it would be too next to impossible & the easiest way to move an army of men & vehicles would be to go right over it where terrain is relatively flat
As seen below in the next picture on the Sikkim - Tibet border (indicated by yellow line below) India controls all the peaks to the west while China controls the valley region in the center referred to as Chumbi Valley. Due to India controlling the heights all along the border up north any Chinese aggression from Tibet into Sikkim/India in this area can be repulsed due to the terrain advantage that India enjoys. India could easily deploy heavy artillery to target positions down in the Chumbi valley if their position came under threat. Additionally due to the shape/location of Chumbi Valley which is both narrow & shares a long border with Sikkim to the west it is highly susceptible to Indian counter attacks from the flanks.
After the 1962 war where India suffered big losses, India beefed up security all along the border with China including Sikkim. In 1967 Chinese troops had brief skirmish with Indian troops at Nathu La Pass (around 13-14km NW of Doka La Pass). Indian troops were able to successfully beat back the Chinese troops & hold their ground. Knowing all this it would be foolish for China to start even a small limited border skirmish in the tri-junction or eastern part of Sikkim. So how does one overcome such a issue. By launching a flanking maneuver where you can go for the enemy weak point via an alternate route. This was best exemplified in the Battle of Thermopylae where the million+ men strong Persian army were held up by a few thousand Greeks (sorry number was higher than 300 which is what the movie 300 leads you to believe) for 2 whole days. On 3rd day they were led to an alternate route behind the Greeks back finally defeating them eventually.
For China this flanking maneuver is going over the Dolam Plateau. Therefore it is imperative that they claim Gymochen as the "new" tri-junction point. This way they can lay their claim to the entire Dolam Plateau. Once the Dolam Plateau claimed as "Chinese" territory they can justify building their motorable road to the the southern edge of the Dolam Plateau which is Zompelri (Bhutanese)/ Jampheri Ridge. This is the proverbial "red line" that India does not want China to cross. If China got to the Zompelri Ridge it would be able climb down the foothills of the Himalayas & advance directly into northwest West Bengal (see green lines below where they could travel over the Dolam Plateau & down the foothills of Himalayas) which is just 20km from the Zompelri ridge . This would allow the Chinese to bypass the Indian defenses in Sikkim which have been strengthened over time & also where India enjoys the terrain advantage. The attack would be in northeast West Bengal where defenses are not setup as the border shared there is with Bhutan & not China.
A big worry to strategic observers in India is the threat to the Siliguri corridor referred to as "Chicken's neck". The Siliguri corridor is narrow piece of land (just 20 km wide at it's narrowest point) that connects the North-East with rest of India via West Bengal. This Siliguri corridor is just around 90km from the edge of the Zompelri ridge (as the crow fIies). In case an attack by China on this strategic bottleneck the road & rail links from North East to rest of India could be disrupted. This would essentially cut off 40-50 million people living in the North East could be cut off from the rest of India & provide China with a huge strategic advantage.
Therefore the intervention by Indian troops to enter a 3rd country Bhutan was essential. The goal was to stop the road building at around Doka La Pass across the international border . They could not allow a motorable road to be built up to the southern edge of the Dolam Plateau from where in times of war China could flank around India's strongholds in Sikkim instead attack down south in West Bengal potentially at India's weak point in the Siliguri corridor.
As seen by events in last few years in the South China Sea, China without any regard for international laws has repeatedly encroached in disputed territories with many of it's neighbors . Many of these nations either don't want to earn China's wrath by trying to block China from occupying such disputed areas or don't have the military might or resources to do so. Countries like Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia & Indonesia have protested through official statements from their governments but have been able do nothing on the ground as China gobbles up these territories with aggressive infrastructure building & intimidation/threats through official & semi official government media outlets. President of Philippines Rodrigo Duterte (referred to as Trump of South East Asia) is a strongman/hardliner has a no holds barred approach to all his opponents who he takes them on anytime & anywhere. In his bombastic style he first claimed that Philippines would extract oil from all areas under dispute with China which they claim to be rightfully theirs. He was known to never back down from a fight, but in May 2017 he shockingly overnight went soft on China once he was threatened with possible war by Xi Jinping, China's current President.
After the India intervention on June 16th 2017 Chinese were taken aback as they never had expected India to intervene like this. They had never been challenged by any of their neighbors in disputes like this before. China was like a bully who was used to having his own way doing as he pleases without anyone interfering. But like when an opponent strikes back at bullies it leaves him confused as he can't have his way anymore. He starts mouthing even more crazier threats to intimidate his opponent into submission. This is what exactly happened post June 16th 2017. Both the Chinese government & media went into frenzy denouncing the Indian action as hostile. They mentioned that India had violated China's territorial sovereignty & had to unconditionally withdraw troops or face the consequences. There were regular threats of war from editorials in their state sponsored mouthpiece newspapers. They mentioned that India hadn't learnt the bitter lessons of the war with China in 1962 & that it would teach it a lesson even worse than in the 1962 war. China had basically deployed full level of psychological warfare on India to intimidate India into backing down from Dolam similar to what it does in other territorial disputes with it's other neighbors.
China even dusted off from its archives a 1890 treaty between Chinese empire (Qing dynasty) & British India which claimed that the border between Sikkim (which was an independent kingdom under British patronage) & Tibet started at Mount Gipmochi i.e. Gymochen (vs India assertion that it started in north at Batang La).
China to backup their claims even said that Jawaharlal Nehru accepted these claims in a letter to then Chinese PM in 1959.
But as usual China tries to play dirty mind games where it doesn't reveal all the pertinent facts & distorts them willfully to press it claims.
So in conclusion 1890 treaty which might benefit them due to an interpretation is fine & should be enforced while the 1914 Simla Accord which doesn't suit them is conveniently unjust & is not valid.
Back to present day, the Indian government should be credited as it stood it's ground in face of barrage of criticism & open threats from China knowing that any change in the status quo was non-negotiable & unacceptable. Indian government tried to keep the responses to the Chinese measured with no bluster or threats but simply asking for a return to the pre June 16 2017 positions. Unlike on Pakistan where not only some in India media but also in government go over the top with chest thumping there was mostly silence from India side except some periodic statements from MEA (Ministry of External Affairs). Modi had instructed to all in his party that only MEA was authorized to speak on this sensitive issue. This was to ensure that situation is not further inflamed which could possibly lead to war. What instead the India government did was open backchannel private negotiations with the Chinese to try to resolve this issue in a peaceful manner
In the end China agreed to back down for now for few reasons. On the ground with the Indians refusing to budge the situation had reached a stalemate & winter was soon approaching (at these high altitudes). Except the use of force, China was not going to able to start road construction any time soon. A use of force meant loss of lives & possible war. With upcoming BRICS Summit in China, it would have been an embarrassment for the host China if Modi had decided not to show up due to the Dolam dispute being not resolved. With America receding from the world stage with Trump's America First policy, China wants to fill that void showing itself to be the next true global leader. An absence by a big nation like India would have caused people to poke holes in the assertion that China was a world leader who can work together with everyone. To save face for both sides, the respective governments claimed sort of "moral victory" in their official statements which weren't highly detailed: India claimed that China has agreed to go back to status quo by abandoning the road work while China claimed that Indian troops have returned back over the border to India & they reserve the right to mount foot patrols in the Dolam Plateau which they had been doing even before the crisis erupted in June.
However due to the economic growth slowdown in China as it gradually shifts from a developing to a major world economy there could possibly some economic issues for it's people. Having huge number of people in distress could easily lead to mass protests. This could then spiral out of control & create headache for the government which believes in tightly controlling all aspects of people's lives. In such times in the future, the Chinese government would not be averse to a brief all out war or a skirmish somewhere along the border to distract it's people with nationalism which already is on the rise in China for the past few years.
In the end most believe that India did win this round by forcing China back to the status quo situation pre June 16th 2017. Many were glad to see that cooler heads prevailed on both sides & issue was resolved without any untoward incident & also without any jingoistic rhetoric on the Indian side (which is directed towards Pakistan on a regular basis). This should however be an eye opener for India that it needs to be work doubly harder to guard India's safety interests. China was truly caught off guard by the speed & effectiveness of the Indian response in Dolam as they were under impression that no one will date oppose them like in South China Sea. The Dolam standoff is over for now but now the fear is that the Chinese might come back doubly hard having learnt the lessons of Dolam in another sector like Ladakh or Arunachal Pradesh where terrain might not be to India's advantage. India cannot afford to relax & needs to urgently upgrade all border infrastructure to match China's huge strides in border infrastructure in Tibet. This will ensure that any new Chinese misadventure is nipped in the bud.
Bhutan was mightily relieved that it's nuclear neighbors didn't go to war as it would have been caught in the middle & suffered great losses. China which doesn't have diplomatic relations with Bhutan has tried hard over the years to establish both trade & economic relations with Bhutan but all their overtures have been declined by Bhutan. In the past China has tried to negotiate directly with Bhutan for territorial disputes in other areas in addition to Dolam. They made an offer to Bhutan to settle the northern disputed areas in favor of Bhutan if they give up their claim on Dolam which is of strategic importance to China to threaten India. India needs to continue to build strong relationship with Bhutan to ensure such Faustian deals are never ever accepted by Bhutan. I know that Modi's foreign trips are constant source of debate but if you can guess the destination of his first overseas trip consider yourself as a general knowledge genius! His first trip after becoming PM was to of all countries : Bhutan. He understood the threat from China & wanted to reiterate the special relationship that India enjoys with Bhutan.
Recently China has been pursuing the "string of pearls" strategy where they try to encircle India with establishing relationships with India's neighbors (both land border & at sea in Indian Ocean) with Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Burma, Nepal, Maldives, etc. China has been trying to project it's economic power by building infrastructure for India's neighbors. However many of these projects like the one in Sri Lanka's Hambantota port where China offers very easy credit/loans however with high interest rates . Small nations take advantage of these easy loans but when many of these projects don't pan out economically, China instead of requesting interest payments will take over equity in these projects. This would give them control of infrastructure which could very well used in future for Chinese military purposes. India's needs to counter this policy by trying to build relationships around the India Ocean including investing time & money in these nations for peaceful purposes unlike the Chinese. Since China is playing in India's backyard (Indian Ocean) it might not be the worst idea of starting to begin working with some the aggrieved neighbors of China in the South China Sea (China's own backyard) to build new relationships to counteract China increasing hegemony in Asia in the future. India's best bet for protecting her vital national security interests is building alliances with other countries in Asia who also feel threatened by China's expansionist policies as there is some doubt whether its newer close friend USA or older close friend Russia would take sides with India in the future in case of war with China.
Image: Courtesy of https://swarajyamag.com/defence/truths-mapped-out-india-cannot-afford-to-have-china-controlling-doklam-plateau
China since it claims the territory in south till Gymochen/Gamochen, over past several years has been building roads in Tibet not only to the actual border to Bhutan but also inside Bhutan itself. It built a motorable road around 2005 time frame (capable of supporting big military vehicles) extending from the disputed border right up to the Doka La Pass. This was the status quo until June 15, 2017
On June 16th 2017 as per reports Chinese troops were going to start extension of this motorable road to the south towards their claimed border towards the south. This is when Indian Army soldiers at the Doka La outpost crossed over the international border with Bhutan & blocked them from proceeding with the construction. This created many firsts including the Indian Army crossing over into a 3rd country to confront Chinese troops.
This leads to an obvious question that why did India have to intervene on behalf of Bhutan when Bhutan's & not's India's territorial sovereignty was infringed upon. One must remember that Bhutan is a very tiny country sandwiched between two giants of Asia: India & China. Due to fears of being invaded by China, Bhutan signed a friendship treaty with India in 1949 (to avoid a fate like Tibet which was annexed by China around same time). One of the main principles of the treaty was "Bhutan agrees to to be guided by advice of India in regards to external relations". This meant that Bhutan had to compulsorily consult India on all aspects with regard to foreign relations (including with China). Bhutan is the only neighbor of China which doesn't have diplomatic relations with China. This treaty was later revised in 2007 to more looser terms saying that India & Bhutan to consult with one another on issues of national interest & not allow each other territories to be used in activities that are harmful to national security & interest of another. It is this exact wording in the India - Bhutan treaty which allows India the right to act on Bhutan's behalf for protecting not only Bhutan's but also India's own interest (more on that a bit later). Bhutan is very small nation which doesn't have a powerful army. They don't patrol the Dolam plateau regularly as it is both uninhabitable for most of year & it is of no strategic importance to them. Hence India had to take proactive action, crossing the international border & physically denying the Chinese from making any progress further south.
Next question is why would India be worried if China is intruding into a 3rd country. (Bhutan). There are 3 answer to this question : TERRAIN, TERRAIN & TERRAIN. In mountain warfare one the biggest advantage one can have over the enemy is being at a higher terrain than your enemy. This not only allows you to monitor enemy movements but makes it much harder for the enemy to dislodge you from that position. The attacker has to climb up high plus fight the defender at the same time . If the defender is in a well entrenched position he can easily inflict high casualties on the attacker. The 1999 war in Kargil & Operation Meghdoot to capture the Siachen glacier in 1984 are examples of this. Normally as per military doctrine an attacker needs a 3:1 force ratio to defeat while attacking & defeating an enemy. To mount a successful capture of a high position held by an enemy that ratio could easily surpass 10:1 i.e. attacker would have to throw a huge amount of overwhelming manpower to achieve their objective.
Dolam Plateau (at 13,000 to 14,00 feet above sea level) is a relatively flat area surrounded by deep valleys & sharp peaks around it. These big peaks & deep valleys mean that navigating around it would be too next to impossible & the easiest way to move an army of men & vehicles would be to go right over it where terrain is relatively flat
As seen below in the next picture on the Sikkim - Tibet border (indicated by yellow line below) India controls all the peaks to the west while China controls the valley region in the center referred to as Chumbi Valley. Due to India controlling the heights all along the border up north any Chinese aggression from Tibet into Sikkim/India in this area can be repulsed due to the terrain advantage that India enjoys. India could easily deploy heavy artillery to target positions down in the Chumbi valley if their position came under threat. Additionally due to the shape/location of Chumbi Valley which is both narrow & shares a long border with Sikkim to the west it is highly susceptible to Indian counter attacks from the flanks.
After the 1962 war where India suffered big losses, India beefed up security all along the border with China including Sikkim. In 1967 Chinese troops had brief skirmish with Indian troops at Nathu La Pass (around 13-14km NW of Doka La Pass). Indian troops were able to successfully beat back the Chinese troops & hold their ground. Knowing all this it would be foolish for China to start even a small limited border skirmish in the tri-junction or eastern part of Sikkim. So how does one overcome such a issue. By launching a flanking maneuver where you can go for the enemy weak point via an alternate route. This was best exemplified in the Battle of Thermopylae where the million+ men strong Persian army were held up by a few thousand Greeks (sorry number was higher than 300 which is what the movie 300 leads you to believe) for 2 whole days. On 3rd day they were led to an alternate route behind the Greeks back finally defeating them eventually.
For China this flanking maneuver is going over the Dolam Plateau. Therefore it is imperative that they claim Gymochen as the "new" tri-junction point. This way they can lay their claim to the entire Dolam Plateau. Once the Dolam Plateau claimed as "Chinese" territory they can justify building their motorable road to the the southern edge of the Dolam Plateau which is Zompelri (Bhutanese)/ Jampheri Ridge. This is the proverbial "red line" that India does not want China to cross. If China got to the Zompelri Ridge it would be able climb down the foothills of the Himalayas & advance directly into northwest West Bengal (see green lines below where they could travel over the Dolam Plateau & down the foothills of Himalayas) which is just 20km from the Zompelri ridge . This would allow the Chinese to bypass the Indian defenses in Sikkim which have been strengthened over time & also where India enjoys the terrain advantage. The attack would be in northeast West Bengal where defenses are not setup as the border shared there is with Bhutan & not China.
A big worry to strategic observers in India is the threat to the Siliguri corridor referred to as "Chicken's neck". The Siliguri corridor is narrow piece of land (just 20 km wide at it's narrowest point) that connects the North-East with rest of India via West Bengal. This Siliguri corridor is just around 90km from the edge of the Zompelri ridge (as the crow fIies). In case an attack by China on this strategic bottleneck the road & rail links from North East to rest of India could be disrupted. This would essentially cut off 40-50 million people living in the North East could be cut off from the rest of India & provide China with a huge strategic advantage.
Therefore the intervention by Indian troops to enter a 3rd country Bhutan was essential. The goal was to stop the road building at around Doka La Pass across the international border . They could not allow a motorable road to be built up to the southern edge of the Dolam Plateau from where in times of war China could flank around India's strongholds in Sikkim instead attack down south in West Bengal potentially at India's weak point in the Siliguri corridor.
As seen by events in last few years in the South China Sea, China without any regard for international laws has repeatedly encroached in disputed territories with many of it's neighbors . Many of these nations either don't want to earn China's wrath by trying to block China from occupying such disputed areas or don't have the military might or resources to do so. Countries like Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia & Indonesia have protested through official statements from their governments but have been able do nothing on the ground as China gobbles up these territories with aggressive infrastructure building & intimidation/threats through official & semi official government media outlets. President of Philippines Rodrigo Duterte (referred to as Trump of South East Asia) is a strongman/hardliner has a no holds barred approach to all his opponents who he takes them on anytime & anywhere. In his bombastic style he first claimed that Philippines would extract oil from all areas under dispute with China which they claim to be rightfully theirs. He was known to never back down from a fight, but in May 2017 he shockingly overnight went soft on China once he was threatened with possible war by Xi Jinping, China's current President.
After the India intervention on June 16th 2017 Chinese were taken aback as they never had expected India to intervene like this. They had never been challenged by any of their neighbors in disputes like this before. China was like a bully who was used to having his own way doing as he pleases without anyone interfering. But like when an opponent strikes back at bullies it leaves him confused as he can't have his way anymore. He starts mouthing even more crazier threats to intimidate his opponent into submission. This is what exactly happened post June 16th 2017. Both the Chinese government & media went into frenzy denouncing the Indian action as hostile. They mentioned that India had violated China's territorial sovereignty & had to unconditionally withdraw troops or face the consequences. There were regular threats of war from editorials in their state sponsored mouthpiece newspapers. They mentioned that India hadn't learnt the bitter lessons of the war with China in 1962 & that it would teach it a lesson even worse than in the 1962 war. China had basically deployed full level of psychological warfare on India to intimidate India into backing down from Dolam similar to what it does in other territorial disputes with it's other neighbors.
China even dusted off from its archives a 1890 treaty between Chinese empire (Qing dynasty) & British India which claimed that the border between Sikkim (which was an independent kingdom under British patronage) & Tibet started at Mount Gipmochi i.e. Gymochen (vs India assertion that it started in north at Batang La).
"The boundary of Sikkim and Tibet shall be the crest of the mountain range separating the waters flowing into the Sikkim Teesta and its affluents from the waters flowing into the Tibetan Mochu and northwards into other rivers of Tibet. The line commences at Mount Gimpochi on the Bhutan frontier, and follows the above-mentioned water-parting to the point where it meets Nipal territory"
China to backup their claims even said that Jawaharlal Nehru accepted these claims in a letter to then Chinese PM in 1959.
But as usual China tries to play dirty mind games where it doesn't reveal all the pertinent facts & distorts them willfully to press it claims.
- The 1890 treaty was signed between the Chinese [Qing dynasty] & British empires. The irony here is that the treaty was related to border between 2 kingdoms: Tibet (under loose Chinese rule) & Sikkim(independent kingdom under protection by the British) who weren't even consulted on this. Furthermore Bhutan to whom this area belongs to today was not even part of discussions.
- As per 1890 treaty the area under Tibet extends southwards till Mount Gimpochi as per Chinese claims. But this area was never fully demarcated & an official boundary was never published for the same leading to different interpretations today of where the border lies. Some historians claim that Sikkimese documents refer to Batang-La as Mount Gimpochi supporting India's claim.
- Complicating matters, however, the Indian interpretation of the 1890 convention differs from the Chinese one in an important way and appears to be supported by geographic realities. Himalayan border delimitations in the late-19th and early-20th century, which relied on what’s known as the “watershed principle.” Effectively the border between British India and China was to be decided on the basis of the highest continuous mountain ridge line. In the case of Dolam, there is indeed a continuous ridgeline that runs from the current tri boundary point between India, Nepal, and China to the area at the center of the current standoff which appears to terminate at Batang-la, the point India and Bhutan claim as the tri boundary point, even though the convention’s text explicitly says “Mount Gipmochi.” Effectively, this puts the first sentence of the convention’s first article in conflict with the second and is likely an artifact of poor survey work in the late-19th century
- Nehru in his letter to Chinese PM in 1959 mentioned that the issue of border between Sikkim & Tibet in the north (away from Dolam) is settled matter & there is no dispute over it. However the the boundaries of Sikkim & Bhutan do not fall within that scope. As Chinese had shown areas of Bhutan in their maps to be under Chinese claims he said that maps showing the same had to be rectified & is it is a matter to discussed along with India/Tibet boundary issue.
- Furthermore the Indian side has underlined that the two Governments (China & India) had in 2012 reached agreement that the tri-junction boundary points between India, China and third countries will be finalized in consultation with the concerned countries. Any attempt, therefore, to unilaterally determine tri-junction points is in violation of this understanding. So even if China's claims were valid this would have to be negotiated in talks between both countries.
So in conclusion 1890 treaty which might benefit them due to an interpretation is fine & should be enforced while the 1914 Simla Accord which doesn't suit them is conveniently unjust & is not valid.
Back to present day, the Indian government should be credited as it stood it's ground in face of barrage of criticism & open threats from China knowing that any change in the status quo was non-negotiable & unacceptable. Indian government tried to keep the responses to the Chinese measured with no bluster or threats but simply asking for a return to the pre June 16 2017 positions. Unlike on Pakistan where not only some in India media but also in government go over the top with chest thumping there was mostly silence from India side except some periodic statements from MEA (Ministry of External Affairs). Modi had instructed to all in his party that only MEA was authorized to speak on this sensitive issue. This was to ensure that situation is not further inflamed which could possibly lead to war. What instead the India government did was open backchannel private negotiations with the Chinese to try to resolve this issue in a peaceful manner
In the end China agreed to back down for now for few reasons. On the ground with the Indians refusing to budge the situation had reached a stalemate & winter was soon approaching (at these high altitudes). Except the use of force, China was not going to able to start road construction any time soon. A use of force meant loss of lives & possible war. With upcoming BRICS Summit in China, it would have been an embarrassment for the host China if Modi had decided not to show up due to the Dolam dispute being not resolved. With America receding from the world stage with Trump's America First policy, China wants to fill that void showing itself to be the next true global leader. An absence by a big nation like India would have caused people to poke holes in the assertion that China was a world leader who can work together with everyone. To save face for both sides, the respective governments claimed sort of "moral victory" in their official statements which weren't highly detailed: India claimed that China has agreed to go back to status quo by abandoning the road work while China claimed that Indian troops have returned back over the border to India & they reserve the right to mount foot patrols in the Dolam Plateau which they had been doing even before the crisis erupted in June.
However due to the economic growth slowdown in China as it gradually shifts from a developing to a major world economy there could possibly some economic issues for it's people. Having huge number of people in distress could easily lead to mass protests. This could then spiral out of control & create headache for the government which believes in tightly controlling all aspects of people's lives. In such times in the future, the Chinese government would not be averse to a brief all out war or a skirmish somewhere along the border to distract it's people with nationalism which already is on the rise in China for the past few years.
In the end most believe that India did win this round by forcing China back to the status quo situation pre June 16th 2017. Many were glad to see that cooler heads prevailed on both sides & issue was resolved without any untoward incident & also without any jingoistic rhetoric on the Indian side (which is directed towards Pakistan on a regular basis). This should however be an eye opener for India that it needs to be work doubly harder to guard India's safety interests. China was truly caught off guard by the speed & effectiveness of the Indian response in Dolam as they were under impression that no one will date oppose them like in South China Sea. The Dolam standoff is over for now but now the fear is that the Chinese might come back doubly hard having learnt the lessons of Dolam in another sector like Ladakh or Arunachal Pradesh where terrain might not be to India's advantage. India cannot afford to relax & needs to urgently upgrade all border infrastructure to match China's huge strides in border infrastructure in Tibet. This will ensure that any new Chinese misadventure is nipped in the bud.
Bhutan was mightily relieved that it's nuclear neighbors didn't go to war as it would have been caught in the middle & suffered great losses. China which doesn't have diplomatic relations with Bhutan has tried hard over the years to establish both trade & economic relations with Bhutan but all their overtures have been declined by Bhutan. In the past China has tried to negotiate directly with Bhutan for territorial disputes in other areas in addition to Dolam. They made an offer to Bhutan to settle the northern disputed areas in favor of Bhutan if they give up their claim on Dolam which is of strategic importance to China to threaten India. India needs to continue to build strong relationship with Bhutan to ensure such Faustian deals are never ever accepted by Bhutan. I know that Modi's foreign trips are constant source of debate but if you can guess the destination of his first overseas trip consider yourself as a general knowledge genius! His first trip after becoming PM was to of all countries : Bhutan. He understood the threat from China & wanted to reiterate the special relationship that India enjoys with Bhutan.
Recently China has been pursuing the "string of pearls" strategy where they try to encircle India with establishing relationships with India's neighbors (both land border & at sea in Indian Ocean) with Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Burma, Nepal, Maldives, etc. China has been trying to project it's economic power by building infrastructure for India's neighbors. However many of these projects like the one in Sri Lanka's Hambantota port where China offers very easy credit/loans however with high interest rates . Small nations take advantage of these easy loans but when many of these projects don't pan out economically, China instead of requesting interest payments will take over equity in these projects. This would give them control of infrastructure which could very well used in future for Chinese military purposes. India's needs to counter this policy by trying to build relationships around the India Ocean including investing time & money in these nations for peaceful purposes unlike the Chinese. Since China is playing in India's backyard (Indian Ocean) it might not be the worst idea of starting to begin working with some the aggrieved neighbors of China in the South China Sea (China's own backyard) to build new relationships to counteract China increasing hegemony in Asia in the future. India's best bet for protecting her vital national security interests is building alliances with other countries in Asia who also feel threatened by China's expansionist policies as there is some doubt whether its newer close friend USA or older close friend Russia would take sides with India in the future in case of war with China.
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