Gujarat Elections 2017

On December 9th & 14th the voters in Gujarat will go to the polling booth to vote on the assembly elections to select a new government. Politics of Gujarat is fascinating due to the frequently changing governments & CM’s (Chief Ministers) over its 57 year old history. Due to the quite recent 13 years of uninterrupted term of Narendra Modi  (2001 – 2014) most have forgotten about the unstable times of past where CM’s use to come & go at the drop of a hat.  Out of the 16 chief ministers that Gujarat has had, only 3 – Hitendra Desai, Madhavsinh Solanki and Modi completed a full five-year term. The average tenure of the remaining 13 chief ministers comes to poor 2.5 years shows that the CM’s chair in Gujarat has been a “crown of thorns”.

A BRIEF HISTORY OF GUJARAT POLITICS

Congress party was in power in Gujarat from 1960 (creation of state) to 1990 (except between 1975 to 1980: Jan Sangh). The election in1990 saw a 3 way split of seats among Congress, JD (Janta Dal) & BJP. Chimanbhai Patel (JD) formed a coalition government with BJP & was elected as CM. However in late 1990 due to the parting of ways between BJP & JD at national level (which led to fall of the VP Singh government in Centre) this local coalition in Gujarat too collapsed. Chimanbhai quickly negotiated a new alliance with Congress & continued to be the CM. Before the end of the term in 1995 the JD (Gujarat) faction merged with the Congress party.

During the 1995 elections BJP swept to power & Keshubhai Patel was elected as its CM. Shankersinh Vaghela who was one of the architects of the 1995 victory along with Narendra Modi was passed over for the CM’s post. Vaghela gradually saw his influence wane in the local politics of Gujarat. He suspected the cause of this not only to be the CM Keshubhai Patel but also Modi who he suspected of having an outsized influence on the government, inspite of Modi not being a part of the actual cabinet. These buildups of resentment lead to an eventual outright rebellion where Shankersinh who is affectionately called as “Bapu” by his followers, took 47 MLA’s to Khajurao in neighboring Madhya Pradesh. As a compromise to quell the rebellion between Keshubhai & Vaghela groups, Modi was shunted out to national politics as a party general secretary & Suresh Mehta (a neutral not belonging either to Keshubhai or Vaghela camps) was appointed as CM. However this brief peace lasted barely a year when Vaghela split from the BJP to follow his own party: RJP. He did become CM eventually with help from Congress in 1997 & the RJP + Congress coalition government lasted little over a year when in 1998 he called for fresh elections. However in the 1998 elections RJP was thoroughly routed & BJP rode back to power with Keshubhai again at the helm of affairs in Gandhinagar.  This term unlike previous one was largely bereft of intra party squabbles but then towards the end of the term there were accusations of corruption, poor governance & administration. The poor relief & recovery response after the devastating 2001 Republic Day earthquake added to the existing woes of the government. But the bigger “political earthquake” was to come 9 months later. In September 2001 a by election was to be held in Sabarmati assembly seat which was contained within LK Advani’s Lok Sabha constituency. Sabarmati: a BJP bastion which BJP hadn’t lost since 1985 in a shocker saw the BJP candidate lose to Congress by a margin of over 19,000 votes. This set of the alarm bells in BJP high command in New Delhi who acted swiftly to act before it was too late. LK Advani succeeded in installing his favorite Narendra Modi as CM of Gujarat.

Less than 6 months later on February 27, 2002 a coach of the Sabarmati Express carrying kar sevaks returning from Ayodhya was burned in Godhra. This led to massive rioting statewide over next few weeks in which ~1,000 people were killed. The government was accused of being negligent and complicit to quell the rioting in the aftermath of the Godhra tragedy. Facing intense criticism from both outside & inside the party for both being hostile towards Muslims & the handling of situation during riots Modi dissolved the government, calling for fresh elections in state a year ahead of schedule. Due to the riots with the Hindu majority consolidated firmly behind him he went to win in a landslide in 2002.  

I won’t go into the modern history of Gujarat politics post 2002 election as most are well versed in it and have good memory of it. Over next 12 years Modi was attacked constantly by Congress & other in opposition especially over events in 2002 but he easily swatted away all challenges with great ease & continued to be in power winning the assembly elections twice again in 2007 & 2012. Modi has been an exception rather than the norm in terms of longevity being the CM of Gujarat. He has consistently beaten off various challengers from Congress from both local & national Congress leaders.After presiding over the historic win in 2014 Lok Sabha election, he moved to New Delhi giving over the reins of Gujarat to Anandiben Patel.

BJP has been in power for 22 years straight (albeit with couple years under splinter faction by Vaghela). In the modern history of India other than the 34 year rule of the CPM in West Bengal, I cannot recall any other party that has been in power this long. This not only speaks volumes among the strength of BJP (Vis a Vis Modi/Shah) but also to the weakness of Congress to put up a stiffer challenge over these 22 years. Congress party in Gujarat now for quite some time has been riddled with massive factionalism. It has a mix of leaders from original Congressmen to ex BJP men like Vaghela & not to forget former Janta Dal members. The multiple power centers do no good to the party at a time when Congress requires a strong leader to counter Modi. Many lower Congressmen have privately complained that for the past few elections Shankersinh Vaghela, Shaktisinh Gohil, Bharathsinh Solanki & Arjun Modvadia play a round robin game among themselves. After leading Congress to a defeat one resigns & hands over the baton the next who will be in power till next election which they lose again, after which they resign & pass the leadership baton to the 3rd one & so on & so forth, but just among the four of them. Congress has practically thrown the “kitchen sink” at Modi over the years but Modi has outfoxed them in every election so far. This time around to unify the party under his command, Shankersinh Vaghela made request to Rahul Gandhi to hand over reins of Gujarat Congress to him. He claimed in an interview that Rahul Gandhi promised a year before election to do so. But later for reasons unknown this promise was not kept leading to his rebellion & eventual expulsion from the party. Many political analysts feel that this was huge missed opportunity for the Congress which could use the leadership of a political veteran like Vaghela this time around. Vaghela & Modi came up together through the ranks in RSS/BJP & are very well acquainted with each other strengths & weaknesses. Vaghela & Modi are also said to have intricate knowledge of all the 13,000 villages of Gujarat & the caste composition in all 182 assembly constituencies. Vaghela who knows inside out the BJP strategy from prior campaigns was the type of street fighter who could go head to head in bare knuckles fight with the BJP. By not declaring a CM candidate Congress left BJP an opportunity to instead portray this election as a national Modi vs Rahul fight vs. a possible at local level Vaghela vs current CM Vijay Rupani (who is not considered a political heavyweight) fight. Many claim that instead of projecting a strong leader at local level they have propped up 3 outsiders: Hardik Patel, Alpesh Thakor & Jignesh Mevani.

NEW ENTRANTS : HARDIK PATEL, ALPESH THAKOR & JIGNESH MEVANI

Hardik Patel in 2015 setup the PAAS (Patidar Anamat Andolan Samiti) as an organization to push for reservation for Patels. He felt that with the rapid industrialization & urbanization of the economy in Gujarat that the Patels who were in agriculture were getting left behind. The movement caught fire & gained massive support virtually overnight. After a huge rally in Ahmedabad he was arrested by police as he did not have permission to stay on the grounds after the rally. The grounds were cleared by the police after a lathi charge. These events led to wide spread violent clashes between police & his supporters which led to both loss of life & property over the next few days. BJP Government faced with intense criticism on the handling of the situation instituted a committee to look into the demands of Patidars. They even proposed a 10% quote under EBC (economically Backward Classes) but it was struck down by the courts as unconstitutional. Separately case was filed against Hardik Patel for sedition & he was forced out of exile from Gujarat for 6 months. This led him to believe that BJP government will not fulfill his demands & declared that he will work to oust the BJP government in Gujarat in 2017.

Simultaneously when the Patidar agitation was ongoing there was a worry among OBC’s about dilution of their share in the 27% OBC quote due to the possible inclusion of Patels in it. Alpesh Thakore an OBC Thakore leader came to prominence raising this issue. At first he was opposed to the Patidar agitation & declared that there shouldn’t be any change to their representation in the quota. Later he merged his effort with that of Hardik Patel with common aim of defeating the BJP in 2017. He claimed that lakhs of his supporters asked him to formally join Congress to ensure his communities’ interests are preserved.

Third of these newcomers was Jignesh Mevani a Dalit lawyer & activist. Last year after Dalits were beaten in Una for skinning dead cows by cow vigilantes he led a protest march of few thousand Dalits. All these 3 new entrants have joined hands with single aim to dislodge the BJP from power in Gandhinagar.

SENTIMENT ON THE GROUND:

The 22 year rule of BJP has certainly led to a “fatigue factor” among the electorate. Patels are visibly upset with BJP & have been the most vocal about it. While the Patels in the urban areas have not done badly during the past few years the Patels in the rural areas who are predominantly in agriculture feel that they have suffered. The Patel unrest is mainly in North Gujarat & Saurashtra where they are engaged in cotton & groundnut farming. After suffering crop failures few years ago this time around even with a bumper crop they have issue with a very low MSP (minimum support price) they are getting for their crop. Seeing agriculture as “dead end job” the youth in the community want to move to pursue professional course/degrees like medicine, engineering, etc. This is where the issue of reservation comes up as they can’t get into colleges with same ease as those in reservation categories due to them being in the general admission category. Furthermore those do get into colleges say that the private institutions charge an “arm & a leg” to study & when they graduate there aren’t enough jobs in rural areas. There is also deep seething anger at the 14 Patidar youths killed in police firing in 2015 & that no one has been brought to justice for it. On top of it they feel that the BJP high command is anti-Patel as they first removed Keshubhai Patel to make way for Modi (2001) & then removed another Patel CM Anandibehn Patel to install Vijay Rupani for CM ( at behest of Amit Shah). Shivam Vij (an independent journalist) a couple of months before the election visited Gujarat to get the sense of the ground. A Patel who described his outright hatred for BJP to him in following words: “Not that I love the Congress. They are fathers of Muslims. Voting for the Congress is like blinding yourself in one eye. But this time, I will do that because I want to blind the BJP in both its eyes!” This is quite surprising to many as Patels have been the bedrock of the BJP coalition for past 20+ years.

This however shouldn’t be interpreted that all Patels are going to abandon the BJP. Multiple sources have reported that they don’t expect the Patels to vote en masse for against BJP & there will be divisions among their vote. Patel voters where the ones in higher income percentile and/or whom are in urban areas still want to stay with BJP as they have done well while the ones in lower income percentile/rural areas want to switch their votes for Congress. Also another interesting division is that many of the older Patels who have experienced the Congress rule of which they don’t have fond memories & deep distrust will continue to vote for BJP while the youth who grew up mostly during the 22 year BJP rule want to vote for a change i.e. for Congress. Even among the non-Patel farmers this time around there is anger regarding farming distress that I mentioned above. A word I keep hearing again & again in the interviews of reporters with people especially in rural areas is that BJP government has become “ghamndi”(arrogant). Many feel that that the present government doesn’t care about their day to day issues & even though they have no love for Congress just to teach a BJP a lesson they will vote for Congress. Some BJP voters have expressed a strange sentiment: They want the BJP to retain power but with lower majority to cut them down to size. This is the first time in my life that i heard voters saying that while they want their party to win the election but nevertheless with smaller majority!

Congress has tried to latch onto the disenchantment among voters a few months ago with the “Vikas Gando Thayo Che” (Development has become mad). It did gain enough traction that Amit Shah asked party workers to “not fall for campaign of lies by opposition”. BJP the absolute of masters of social media were at the receiving end for the first time ever.  Rahul Gandhi who had famously dismissed social media as a tool in 2014 general elections had woken up to the power of it & reformed the Congress social media cell this year to get back in the social media/online game. Patidar youth the backbone of the Patidar agitation have a huge proportion of cell phone penetration. To weave their own narrative they have been said to be very active on WhatsApp, FB, etc. trying to showcase the shortcoming of the BJP government. All this caught BJP caught on the back foot and they were losing control of the narrative which in the past they were masters of. With the opposition having their own communication network they couldn’t weave their own message through traditional media sources like before. Later on they came up with a counter media campaign “Hu chu Vikas, Hu chu Gujarat” (I am development, I am Gujarat) on social media campaign to undo the damage from the Congress & Patidar.

 In face of the attacks on its governance BJP has tried to project itself in a positive light by trying to showcase the roads, power & water development when they were in power. The development of roads & in power sector is acknowledged even the most ardent BJP detractors. Water from the Sardar Sarovar Dam on the Narmada has indeed being sent to the arid regions of Saurashtra & North Gujarat easing the water crisis for many who are happy. But at the same time others who aren’t near the canal network to take advantage of this irrigation feel left out & betrayed by the BJP government. Gujarat becoming  more of an urbanized state plus the people especially becoming more aspirational wanting jobs & income the allure of simple infrastructure development like bijli, sadak & paani (electricity, roads & water) is seem to be waning. Hence the vikas message from BJP doesn’t have same resonance with voters like before putting BJP on the back foot this time around.

Post joining of Alpesh into the Congress party formally & Hardik in an informal alliance with Congress & Jignesh contesting as an independent from Vadgam where Congress has no candidate (i.e. supporting him indirectly) the BJP has tried to discredit Hardik/Alpesh/Jignesh by trying to paint the picture that they were not interested in reservation or rights for that community but simply opportunists looking for entry into politics. This did create some fissures in opposition ranks but it is to be seen how many of these BJP defectors returned to the BJP.

Gujarat being a highly entrepreneurial state has huge number of small traders & businessmen. Many of them are not happy with the twin shocks of DEMO & GST in under a year which has affected their business. Inspite of the difficulties most of them will vote for BJP due to the TINA factor (There is no alternative)

A lesson from the UP debacle was that Congress has the pro-Muslim/minority label associated with it. Rahul Gandhi to pedal the “soft Hindutva” image to ensure the Hindu electorate isn’t turned off by visiting multiple temples in Gujarat. This has caused the BJP to attack him as they would prefer the Hindu vote consolidate behind them. They have dropped hints that if Congress returns to power there will communal disharmony as many people still have negative perceptions of when Congress was in power last. However for most this time around the 2002 riots is barely an issue this time around & hasn’t struck a chord with the electorate.

There is criticism from many quarters that Congress due to lack of single strong leader has outsourced the heavy lifting work of taking on the mighty BJP in Gujarat to Hardik, Alpesh & Jignesh. Local Congress has retreated into the background & left it to these 3 to campaign extensively across the state. They have their own loyal set of highly passionate supporters who are working hard to defeat the BJP. But to appease these outside factions few tickets have been distributed to them which have not gone well with the rank & file Congressmen. In some constituencies this had led to a situation where sulking Congressmen have given up on election campaigning & left if to the Patidar workers to carry on the fight against BJP.  While in others as per reports in North Gujarat (a bastion of Congress strength in the last election in 2012) Congress has to deal with rebel candidates who refused to withdraw nominations.  A mix of neglect & defeats over the years has badly hollowed out the booth management/”ground game” for the Congress party & pales in shadow to the structure setup by Amit Shah for BJP. Though there are some reports that Congress has started to work on this aspect in more detail this time around to boost its turnout.  Further compounding the problems of Congress party is the reports that the party being short on cash/money has asked candidates to mostly pay for campaign expenses from their own pockets.  This puts them at a disadvantage with BJP with is reported to be flush with cash due to its recent winning streak.

THE NUMBERS GAME:

Gujarat is the 4th most urbanized & 3^rd most industrialized state in the country. A huge chunk (84/182 i.e. 46% of seats 84/182 are in urban areas. Here the BJP did very well in 2012 winning 71 seats (compared to just 12 seats for Congress). Congress was slightly ahead of BJP in rural areas netting 49 seats vs 44 for BJP. During the local body elections in late 2015 just after the Patidar agitations Congress swept the panchayat elections in rural areas while BJP was victorious in the city municipalities. With the anger among rural electorate especially farmers, question is how many seats can the Congress pickup in rural areas to close the overall gap. For BJP can they sweep again in the urban areas winning close to 85% of seats on offer like last time to ensure overall reduction in numbers vs 2012 are kept to a minimum?

Looking at a region wise breakdown BJP did very well in Central, South & Saurashtra while North Gujarat was the only place where Congress did better than BJP.

There is heavy concentration of Patels in Saurashtra & also in North Gujarat where the Patidar movement originated from.  BJP did not too well in 2012 so impact there could possibly be minimum. Question is how much damage the Patidar can cause to the BJP prospects in Saurashtra which has the biggest chunk of 58 seats (48 Saurashtra + 6 Kutch).

Looking at vote share taking a baseline to compare against is slightly tricky as in 2012 Assembly election where BJP was ahead by 9% but in the recent 2014 election BJP was up by a gigantic 26%.  Usually the vote share during a national election & local election would vary due to national vs local issues getting prominence in both elections. There is some research done recently by Roshan Kishore of Hindustan Times where he said that there is usually a dip in vote% of the party which gets maximum share in a Lok Sabha in the next assembly elections. For keeping the comparison at an assembly level let’s assume the 2012 elections as baseline for now. The 9% difference is still a massive delta in a bipolar fight & this shows in the seats won where BJP won 115 while the Congress could only manage 61.  Now due to clustering of votes in some areas, third party/independent votes, etc. usually a 2% or higher vote share advantage vs. your opponent is required. Hence to win the election this time around Congress would need a swing of atleast 6+% in its favor to win the election.

CASTE POLITICS & ALLIANCES

Congress reached their zenith of power in 1985 when they won 149 seats (a record that still stands today). The architect of that landslide was Madhavsinh Solanki who the formed the famous KHAM coalition (Kshatriya Harijan Adivasi Muslim) coalition. This shift in power didn’t sit well with many of the other castes including Patels. They coalesced around BJP an up comer in Gujarat politics in the 80’s. Eventually in 1995 their influence in Gujarat politics was fully cemented when Keshubhai Patel was sworn in as the CM. During the Modi years after 2002 riots the Hindu vote consolidation around BJP & the KHAM model for Congress fell apart. This time around Congress is trying to not only revive the KHAM model but actually widen it with the updated KHAM + P model i.e. KHAM + P (Patels). The basic premise is to woo disaffected Patels including Hardik Patel to cross the finish line as a winner with this new caste combo. As per some estimates Patels (the bedrock of BJP for past 20+ years) account for 20% of the overall BJP vote share. One thing is for certain & has been reported by people on both sides that they haven’t voted as a single block ever in the past & won’t do so either this time around (i.e. All Patels didn’t vote for BJP in 2012 & all won’t vote for Congress in 2017) . The million dollar question here is that how many who voted for BJP in 2012 will cross over to Congress in 2017. From surveys & feedback from reporters the numbers varies wildly from 30 to 50%. Now time for a guesstimate on my part. Assume half of Patel BJP voters vote for Congress this time around. So this would transfer 5% of votes from BJP to Congress which makes the new vote between Cong & BJP a virtual tie. Does these combined with BJP weakness in rural areas among non-Patel's mean Congress is in pole position to win this time around? No one knows the answer to this including yours truly. But before we consider this scenario in detail please consider the following.

Firstly is the chemistry of the new so called KHAM + P alliance. During the KHAM years in the 1980’s when Congress extended reservation to the OBC’s there was friction between the many of the upper caste Patels & OBC’s  including couple of riots in 1981 & 1985. Some observers doubt the strength of the alliance due to the inherent caste contradictions in the alliance. How will the transfer of votes happen from Patidar voters to Cong OBC candidate & from the Kshatriya OBC voter to Cong Patidar candidates? I.e. what is transferability of votes between the communities that were on opposite sides of the political spectrum? The youth is attracted to Hardik Patel but many of the elders are either wary of the tie up with Alpesh/OBC’s and/or Congress party.

BJP to counter the Patidar movement has given 57/182 seats to Patels (10 higher than last time) while Congress had fielded 65/182 Patels (8 higher vs 2012). Since many of seats have a Patel vs Patel fight they had secured a high representation in the new assembly even before voting begins (much higher compared to their 15% of overall population in Gujarat)

 Next I move on to the most fascinating part of this election: the chess match between BJP & Congress: the moves & countermoves

Gujarat has 27 seats reserved for Scheduled Tribes many of which are Adivasi’s. The Adivasi belt in South Gujarat has been a traditional Congress stronghold (Congress winning 16 seats in 2012). BJP had organized Vanvasi Kalyan Kendras in many Adivasi areas to woo over this core constituency. So BJP is trying to break the KHAM + P model by removing the Adivasi’s from it (i.e KHM + P). Congress seeing these moves from BJP has aligned with the ex JD(U) MLA Chotubhai Vasava (whose crucial vote allowed Ahmed Patel to retain his seat in Rajya Sabha earlier this year). Chotubhai has created his own party Gujarat Tribal Party & fielded 5 candidates where Congress has not fielded anyone. This is to consolidate the entire ST vote towards one candidate.

As Prashant Jha (Hindustan Times) describes in detail in his book “How the BJP Wins” in its winning streak across nation during the course of last 3 years BJP has gone after capturing state the non-dominant OBC vote. After the rise of OBC’s post Mandal the politically dominant OBC communities like the Yadavs in UP & Bihar monopolized all the benefits to their communities. Hence this led to feeling of being “left behind & ignored” by the other OBC communities. Amit Shah pulled together an alliance of traditional BJP supporters in upper caste plus these politically non-dominant OBC/Dalit castes to form a broad social coalition which has led BJP to multiple victories. Similar to other state elections one shouldn’t underestimate that BJP’s ability to try to round up votes from the other OBC castes (excluding Kshatriyas who are traditional Congress supporters) to create a new rainbow coalition in Gujarat. If BJP wins on 18^th Dec this would one of the biggest factor of them all – COUNTER OBC CONSOLIDATION. There are some reports that BJP is trying to do this mind you quietly on the ground as of course they don’t want to alienate the remaining Patels left on their side.

X FACTORS: 3^rd Parties & Independents

Since the merger of Shankersinh’ s RJP with Congress in late 90’s elections in Gujarat have been mostly a head to head affair with the Congress & BJP. In the past three elections 3^rd party candidates & independents have been claiming around 12 – 13% of the vote. However these votes are scattered all over the place where no one party get more than 2-3% of the vote. Hence the vote share to seat conversion ratio is extremely poor where they all together pick up only 4-6 seats. 2012 saw a slight different dynamic where former Keshubhai Patel contested with his GPP party which got a good 3.6% votes statewide & a decent 8% in Saurashtra denting the prospects of few BJP & Congress candidates in this region.

This time around the major 3rd parties’ contestants are

AAP (Aam Aadmi Party) Contesting 33 seats (mostly urban)

NCP (Nationalist Congress Party) Contesting on 72 seats

Jan Vikalp Party : Contesting 76 seats (Shankersinh Vaghela’ s new outfit post exit from Congress)

A great article by Nistula Hebbar (The Hindu) describes that 35/182 (1 in every 5 seats) were won by margin of less than 5,000 votes: BJP 14, Cong 19 GPP 1 NCP 1(Note: Median winning average is 17,000 votes) As per a BJP source in article their analysis showed that in 16 seats the votes polled by GPP > margin of loss/victory which they are targeting this time around.

Doing my further analysis on the 2012 numbers I found that if we consider the winning margin to be <10,000 votes (Still way below the median margin of victory) the number of seats rises to 62/182 (1 in every 3 seats!)

Reason I am bringing these numbers is that a single 3^rd party candidate or even two could enter the fray easily pull 5,000 to 10,000 votes  from either faction of  voters & possibly end up changing the victor in that constituency. Prakash Jha (Hindustan Times) has mentioned about the “index of opposition unity” as a major factor in whether the BJP does well or not. When opposition parties’ fight united like the Mahagathbandhan in Bihar in 2015 the BJP can’t do well. Granted there are not major regional parties & this is not best example of the principle but nevertheless it could very well apply here where the large anti BJP vote could split more than 1 way (especially when BJP is facing visible anti-incumbency in Gujarat).

AAP after the debacle in Punjab was dithering on whether to contest in Gujarat or not but decided to take the first time plunge into Gujarat assembly politics. I am not sure contesting in urban areas a stronghold of BJP where most BJP seats have been won by huge margin (against an established party like Congress) makes sense.

NCP couldn’t reach a seat sharing agreement with the Congress & is contesting independently. They did have 2 MLAs in the outgoing assembly & did poll an impressive 14% vote share in the 12 seats they contested. No doubt this shows that they do have strengths in certain pockets of Gujarat but contesting 72 is an over stretch. In areas where they are not dominant this probably is going to help the BJP as it splits the anti BJP vote. An example of this is that NCP has fielded 9 candidates in Surat where there were significant Patidar & GST protests & noticeable anti BJP sentiment. 

Jan Vikalp Party is the new party formed by Shankersinh Vaghela’ s after his exit from the Congress party.  As he is on very good personal terms with Modi even after his exit from BJP in mid-90’s there was a rumor that he might rejoin BJP but that came to pass. He has put up 76 candidates in including a few in North & Gujarat where he enjoys significant following among several communities. He is still smarting from his exit from Congress earlier this year. As I mentioned before he was promised by Rahul to be made chief in charge of Gujarat election only to be denied that post later on. He suspects Ahmed Patel behind denying him the leadership of local party. This was alleged to be the reason behind the timing of his rebellion to coincide just before Ahmed Patel's Rajya Sabha elections. He is rumored to want to get back at the Congress Party by damaging their prospects in North & even possibly Central Gujarat where he has some clout.

Note: Hardik Patel in the early days of his agitation on asked if he would join Congress reportedly said that joining Congress would be suicidal due to the negative connotations in minds of many with the Congress symbol. This was partly seen to his aversion to confirming that he met top Congress leadership in a hotel in Ahmedabad. He says that he doesn’t ask his supporters to vote for Congress but asks his supporters to simply defeat the BJP. There is a dilemma that if he says vote for Congress he risks alienating his base (given their aversion to Congress) but if he tries to not say explicitly to vote for Congress, there could be a few possible voters who for whatever reason vote for one of the 3^rd parties & thus splitting the anti BJP vote away from Congress who is best suited to defeat BJP.

CONCLUSION

Congress to its credit has put up a much better campaign this time around than previous times. Rahul Gandhi has remained engaged during the whole election campaign visiting Gujarat frequently & continuously asking questions of the BJP government. Most of the Congress leadership has mostly avoided making any major gaffes like “maut ka saudagar” which could boomerang against it. BJP in part due to the spirited campaign from Congress & the young trio (Hardik, Alpesh, and Jignesh) plus anti-incumbency was feeling like playing on the back foot as there was no overarching narrative that was resonating with all. It is too early to get a sense of the impact of Mani Shankar Aiyer’s two back to back gaffe’s & Kapil Sibal controversy over request to postpone Ran Janmabhoomi case in Supreme Court which just happened over last few days but nevertheless gave BJP & especially Modi some narrative to pounce upon: Gujarat Asmita (pride) & slight of Congressmen against him. The election which was being fought mostly on caste lines now has the possible potential to get polarized on basis of religion favoring BJP.

For the opposition this is a unique experiment in India politics. It stills remains to be seen whether a disparate alliance of 3 novice caste based popular movements can seamlessly gel together with a seasoned political party albeit without a strong local leader. For e.g. in theory on paper you can have a strong team on paper with very good individual players. But if there is no chemistry within the team members & if there is no strong captain to ensure the team meshes well & performs during crunch time all this talent goes to waste. For the first time Congress is truly in the game in an election in Gujarat mostly due to anti-incumbency. For it to win it has to now make sure all the anger against BJP is actually translated into votes or all the efforts will be in vain. The Congress is belatedly putting efforts into booth management/”ground game” but the question is the anger against BJP so big that “Ground game” doesn’t matter. Everyone talked about in 2016 about Democrats having an advantage due to better “ground game” but simply got overwhelmed by Republicans who came out in larger numbers inspite of weaker “ground game”. If the Congress wins in PM Modi’s backyard it would be nothing short of a political earthquake which will resonate for some time to come. Some polls show them few % behind in the vote share behind BJP while others like CSDS show them basically tied with BJP (though I have some issues with the sampling weightage of CSDS poll which would be subject of whole another article) For it win key is Saurashtra (which has huge concentration of Patidar & rural farmers) where it hasn’t made any inroads in a long time. It has to maintain its lead in North Gujarat which was the epicenter of the youth movements. If not it will simply give up the wins in other areas of Gujarat. In South Gujarat it has to retain the tribal belt & try to wrest away seats in BJP stronghold of Surat which saw Patidar & GST protests. Another thing of paramount importance for Congress is to sweep the rural seats across the state where there is more anger & anti-incumbency while simultaneously trying to the flip the most vulnerable BJP held urban seats.

For the BJP even though their CM is Vijay Rupani their main campaigner is Narendra Modi. On the issue of Narendra Modi there is this strange dichotomy: CM Modi is held is very high regard even by some of his detractors but many are unhappy with the PM Modi (with regards to Demonetization & GST).  However as Prashant Jha notes that people don’t doubt the INTEGRITY & INTENT of Narendra Modi & hence many are willing to give the benefit of doubt. However if BJP loses there will be cracks in this larger than life personality cult of Narendra Modi. The same benefit however is not extended to the local state government which is unpopular for many. Many BJP workers have said that when Modi comes to visit Gujarat all these issues will be gone. Question here is that how many constituencies can Modi visit to change the mind of the disaffected voters? BJP voters when they go to vote will have which of the two on their mind: Narendra Modi (who they know isn’t coming back to Gandhinagar) or local BJP government (not the most popular one for some). BJP can afford to lose 23 seats overall & still retain power. Question is can it minimize the expected losses in Saurashtra? Can it wrest away some Adivasi/tribal seats in South Gujarat to compensate for some losses in Surat. Central Gujarat a bastion of BJP should remain intact for the most part & there is a possible pickup opportunity in Congress strongholds of Kheda & Anand where BJP finally wrested control of co-operatives from Congress. North Gujarat (even though it has strong OBC & Patel population) is the only region where Congress did better than BJP. If BJP can even marginally improve performance this should provide a cushion in case they a suffer setback in another region like Saurashtra. BJP over the years has become a party dominating the cities & doing not so well in the villages. An example of this is an eye opening statistic that nearly half of BJP’s seats were won just from cities of Ahmedabad, Surat, Vadodara, Rajkot, Jamnagar, Junagadh, and Bhavnagar & Gandhinagar. It has to defend these citadels at all costs & limit the damage in villages to a minimum. BJP’s wins in 2012 were with greater margin (median: 19,000) vs Congress (median: 11,000 votes) so it additionally gives it some buffer in case their vote shares dips not too much vs 2012. Furthermore BJP could compensate their losses in one region by flipping some of the Congress seats which were won with narrower margins. Amit Shah has over the years built a very robust booth management system which should hold BJP in good stead. Even if the election is 50-50 as some polling agencies say it could come down to turnout & getting your voters to the booth.

For Congress to win it has to be a “wave” election where large sections of the BJP voter base either simply doesn’t show up and/or are so fed up with the present BJP government that they vote for Congress with a “throw the bums out” mentality. BJP would still be a significant favorite to win as it has a buffer of 20+ seats plus a larger winning margin (19k vs 11k) & 9% vote share delta. This means that even a significant 5% shift in vote percentage is not going to cut it for Congress as even in a virtual tie due to third party candidates & BJP organizational strength it would still win but with a small majority nevertheless.  An upset win for Congress wouldn’t shock me but would still be surprising given that there is some headroom/buffer that BJP has. Probability of Congress winning would be closer to 1/3 (close to what Nate Silver had for Trump who many thought had no chance of winning) while BJP remains a bigger 2/3 favorite.

Note: With successive elections in India it has become very hard to predict the exact number of. seats which will be won by all parties. If I had to take a wild guess maybe BJP wins with 3-4% vote share delta & seats in the low triple digits.